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Elections·Primary Elections

MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Primary Elections

MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner

Adrian Boafo 100.0%

Quincy Bareebe 9.7%

Rushern Baker III <1%

Alexis Solis <1%

Polymarket

$134,074 Vol.

Adrian Boafo 100.0%

Quincy Bareebe 9.7%

Rushern Baker III <1%

Alexis Solis <1%

Polymarket

$134,074 Vol.

Alexis Solis

$1,014 Vol.

No

Dave Sundberg

$1,382 Vol.

No

Ellis Colvin

$846 Vol.

No

Harry Jarin

$2,221 Vol.

No

Heather Luper

$1,109 Vol.

No

Jerry Lightfoot

$751 Vol.

No

Kenneth Simons

$820 Vol.

No

Mark Kenneth Arness

$659 Vol.

No

Quincy Bareebe

$8,646 Vol.

No

Rushern Baker III

$7,110 Vol.

No

Tracy Starr

$1,617 Vol.

No

Wala Blegay

$2,501 Vol.

No

Adrian Boafo

$75,854 Vol.

Yes

Arthur Ellis

$1,886 Vol.

No

Elldwnia English

$1,279 Vol.

No

Harry Dunn

$16,978 Vol.

No

Harold Tolbert

$853 Vol.

No

James Makle Jr.

$863 Vol.

No

Keith Salkowski

$815 Vol.

No

Leigha Messick

$801 Vol.

No

Nicole Williams

$2,159 Vol.

No

Reuben Collins II

$1,871 Vol.

No

Terry Jackson

$869 Vol.

No

Walter Kirkland

$1,169 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Adrian Boafo leads the June 23 Democratic primary for Maryland’s open 5th Congressional District seat, vacated by longtime Rep. Steny Hoyer, with trader consensus placing him well ahead of Harry Dunn and the crowded field of over 20 candidates. Hoyer’s endorsement and substantial outside spending from crypto- and AIPAC-linked super PACs have bolstered Boafo’s position as a sitting state delegate, providing a resource advantage in the final days. Rivals Dunn, Quincy Bareebe, and Rushern Baker III have jointly criticized the influx of roughly $8 million in independent expenditures as “dark money,” highlighting potential voter backlash in Prince George’s County and Southern Maryland precincts. Fundraising reports show Dunn built a sizable personal war chest without corporate PAC support, yet the spending disparity and establishment backing continue to shape implied probabilities ahead of the primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$134,074
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 1:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Adrian Boafo leads the June 23 Democratic primary for Maryland’s open 5th Congressional District seat, vacated by longtime Rep. Steny Hoyer, with trader consensus placing him well ahead of Harry Dunn and the crowded field of over 20 candidates. Hoyer’s endorsement and substantial outside spending from crypto- and AIPAC-linked super PACs have bolstered Boafo’s position as a sitting state delegate, providing a resource advantage in the final days. Rivals Dunn, Quincy Bareebe, and Rushern Baker III have jointly criticized the influx of roughly $8 million in independent expenditures as “dark money,” highlighting potential voter backlash in Prince George’s County and Southern Maryland precincts. Fundraising reports show Dunn built a sizable personal war chest without corporate PAC support, yet the spending disparity and establishment backing continue to shape implied probabilities ahead of the primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$134,074
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 1:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Adrian Boafo" at 100%, followed by "Alexis Solis" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $134.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Adrian Boafo" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexis Solis" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.