Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents losing primaries is tightly split, with 7-9 losses priced at 40% narrowly ahead of >15 at 38%, reflecting one confirmed upset—Rep. Bob Good's defeat by Trump-endorsed challenger John McGuire in Virginia's 5th District primary on June 18—amid otherwise dominant incumbency wins. Recent New York primaries on June 25 saw vulnerable members like Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro easily dispatch opponents, bolstering moderate-loss pricing given historical primary reelection rates exceeding 95%. However, >15 bets persist due to aggressive challenges from Trump allies and groups like Club for Growth targeting 10+ incumbents such as Don Bacon, David Valadao, and Jen Kiggans in upcoming August primaries across Florida, Arizona, Michigan, and Washington. Close fundraising races or surprise turnout surges could drive separation toward higher tallies or preserve the low-upset streak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
<3 12.7%
10-12 3.0%
13-15 <1%
4-6 0
NEW
NEW
<3
13%
4-6
33%
7-9
40%
10-12
3%
13-15
25%
>15
38%
<3 12.7%
10-12 3.0%
13-15 <1%
4-6 0
NEW
NEW
<3
$0 Vol.
13%
4-6
$0 Vol.
33%
7-9
$0 Vol.
40%
10-12
$0 Vol.
3%
13-15
$0 Vol.
25%
>15
$0 Vol.
38%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents losing primaries is tightly split, with 7-9 losses priced at 40% narrowly ahead of >15 at 38%, reflecting one confirmed upset—Rep. Bob Good's defeat by Trump-endorsed challenger John McGuire in Virginia's 5th District primary on June 18—amid otherwise dominant incumbency wins. Recent New York primaries on June 25 saw vulnerable members like Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro easily dispatch opponents, bolstering moderate-loss pricing given historical primary reelection rates exceeding 95%. However, >15 bets persist due to aggressive challenges from Trump allies and groups like Club for Growth targeting 10+ incumbents such as Don Bacon, David Valadao, and Jen Kiggans in upcoming August primaries across Florida, Arizona, Michigan, and Washington. Close fundraising races or surprise turnout surges could drive separation toward higher tallies or preserve the low-upset streak.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$0Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents losing primaries is tightly split, with 7-9 losses priced at 40% narrowly ahead of >15 at 38%, reflecting one confirmed upset—Rep. Bob Good's defeat by Trump-endorsed challenger John McGuire in Virginia's 5th District primary on June 18—amid otherwise dominant incumbency wins. Recent New York primaries on June 25 saw vulnerable members like Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro easily dispatch opponents, bolstering moderate-loss pricing given historical primary reelection rates exceeding 95%. However, >15 bets persist due to aggressive challenges from Trump allies and groups like Club for Growth targeting 10+ incumbents such as Don Bacon, David Valadao, and Jen Kiggans in upcoming August primaries across Florida, Arizona, Michigan, and Washington. Close fundraising races or surprise turnout surges could drive separation toward higher tallies or preserve the low-upset streak.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$0Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Republican House incumbents losing primaries is tightly split, with 7-9 losses priced at 40% narrowly ahead of >15 at 38%, reflecting one confirmed upset—Rep. Bob Good's defeat by Trump-endorsed challenger John McGuire in Virginia's 5th District primary on June 18—amid otherwise dominant incumbency wins. Recent New York primaries on June 25 saw vulnerable members like Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro easily dispatch opponents, bolstering moderate-loss pricing given historical primary reelection rates exceeding 95%. However, >15 bets persist due to aggressive challenges from Trump allies and groups like Club for Growth targeting 10+ incumbents such as Don Bacon, David Valadao, and Jen Kiggans in upcoming August primaries across Florida, Arizona, Michigan, and Washington. Close fundraising races or surprise turnout surges could drive separation toward higher tallies or preserve the low-upset streak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions