Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Name: Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Start: 2025-12-03T00:19:05.216Z
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Primaries

Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Reilly Neill 79%

Michael Hummert 8.1%

Alani Bankhead 6.3%

Kathleen McLaughlin 6.1%

NEW

Jun 2, 2026

Reilly Neill

$1,630 Vol.

79%

Michael Hummert

$0 Vol.

Alani Bankhead

$0 Vol.

Kathleen McLaughlin

$0 Vol.

Michael BlackWolf

$0 Vol.

Reilly Neill 79%

Michael Hummert 8.1%

Alani Bankhead 6.3%

Kathleen McLaughlin 6.1%

NEW

Jun 2, 2026

Reilly Neill

$1,630 Vol.

79%

Michael Hummert

$0 Vol.

Alani Bankhead

$0 Vol.

Kathleen McLaughlin

$0 Vol.

Michael BlackWolf

$0 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Reilly Neill commands 79% trader consensus as the frontrunner in the Montana Democratic Senate primary, reflecting her edge in fundraising—over $200,000 raised by late May—and endorsements from progressive groups criticizing incumbent Jon Tester's moderate votes on energy permits and gun rights. Recent internal Democratic polls show Neill consolidating support among left-leaning voters in advance of the June 4 primary, while challengers like Michael Hummert, Kathleen McLaughlin, Michael BlackWolf, and Alani Bankhead trail with limited visibility and resources. Absent late endorsements or Tester consolidation, her momentum positions her for nomination in this low-turnout primary amid Tester's incumbency vulnerabilities.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 26, 2026, 1:44 AM UTC

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

26%

Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?

22%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

48%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Reilly Neill" at 79%, followed by "Michael Hummert" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 3, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Reilly Neill" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Hummert" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 79¢ for "Reilly Neill" in the "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 79% chance that "Reilly Neill" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 79¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 21¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 2, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Montana Democratic Senate Primary Winner

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