Labour's Rowenna Davis leads trader consensus at 63.5% implied probability to win the Croydon mayoral election on May 7, driven by fragmented opposition in recent polling showing her at 25%, incumbent Conservative Jason Perry at 23%, Green Peter Underwood at 22%, and Reform's Ben Flook at 18%. Splintered votes among Greens, Reform UK, and Liberal Democrats—bolstered by Green's recent by-election gains and national momentum under Zack Polanski—prevent any challenger from consolidating support, enabling a potential plurality victory for Davis despite her narrow vote lead. Perry benefits from incumbency but faces criticism over council tax hikes and financial management, while Davis navigated a manifesto revision removing Gaza references after Labour intervention, drawing Conservative attacks on her policy consistency. Postal voting dispatches loom as a key upcoming factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCroydon Mayoral Election Winner
Croydon Mayoral Election Winner
Rowenna Davis 64%
Jason Perry 26%
Peter Underwood 10.4%
Ben Flook <1%

Rowenna Davis
64%

Jason Perry
26%

Peter Underwood
10%

Ben Flook
1%

Jose Joseph
1%

Richard Howard
<1%

Michael Pusey
<1%
Rowenna Davis 64%
Jason Perry 26%
Peter Underwood 10.4%
Ben Flook <1%

Rowenna Davis
64%

Jason Perry
26%

Peter Underwood
10%

Ben Flook
1%

Jose Joseph
1%

Richard Howard
<1%

Michael Pusey
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Croydon as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the London Borough of Croydon Council.
Market Opened: Apr 6, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Croydon as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the London Borough of Croydon Council.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Labour's Rowenna Davis leads trader consensus at 63.5% implied probability to win the Croydon mayoral election on May 7, driven by fragmented opposition in recent polling showing her at 25%, incumbent Conservative Jason Perry at 23%, Green Peter Underwood at 22%, and Reform's Ben Flook at 18%. Splintered votes among Greens, Reform UK, and Liberal Democrats—bolstered by Green's recent by-election gains and national momentum under Zack Polanski—prevent any challenger from consolidating support, enabling a potential plurality victory for Davis despite her narrow vote lead. Perry benefits from incumbency but faces criticism over council tax hikes and financial management, while Davis navigated a manifesto revision removing Gaza references after Labour intervention, drawing Conservative attacks on her policy consistency. Postal voting dispatches loom as a key upcoming factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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