Incumbent Rob Wittman benefits from name recognition and a history of overperforming in Virginia’s 1st District, rated R+3 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which underpins trader consensus favoring him at 60.5% implied probability. The race remains competitive because Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger carried the district in 2025 and suburban areas like Henrico and Chesterfield have trended left, enabling challenger Shannon Taylor—Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney—to win her August primary decisively and raise substantial funds. Recent developments include a mid-September internal poll showing the candidates essentially tied and ongoing contrasts over crime records and policy priorities ahead of the November 3 general election, with early voting already underway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$29,021 Vol.
$29,021 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Rob Wittman (R)
61%
Shannon Taylor (D)
40%
$29,021 Vol.
$29,021 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Rob Wittman (R)
$7,243 Vol.
61%
Shannon Taylor (D)
$21,778 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rob Wittman benefits from name recognition and a history of overperforming in Virginia’s 1st District, rated R+3 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which underpins trader consensus favoring him at 60.5% implied probability. The race remains competitive because Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger carried the district in 2025 and suburban areas like Henrico and Chesterfield have trended left, enabling challenger Shannon Taylor—Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney—to win her August primary decisively and raise substantial funds. Recent developments include a mid-September internal poll showing the candidates essentially tied and ongoing contrasts over crime records and policy priorities ahead of the November 3 general election, with early voting already underway.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$29,021End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rob Wittman benefits from name recognition and a history of overperforming in Virginia’s 1st District, rated R+3 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which underpins trader consensus favoring him at 60.5% implied probability. The race remains competitive because Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger carried the district in 2025 and suburban areas like Henrico and Chesterfield have trended left, enabling challenger Shannon Taylor—Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney—to win her August primary decisively and raise substantial funds. Recent developments include a mid-September internal poll showing the candidates essentially tied and ongoing contrasts over crime records and policy priorities ahead of the November 3 general election, with early voting already underway.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,021End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rob Wittman benefits from name recognition and a history of overperforming in Virginia’s 1st District, rated R+3 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which underpins trader consensus favoring him at 60.5% implied probability. The race remains competitive because Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger carried the district in 2025 and suburban areas like Henrico and Chesterfield have trended left, enabling challenger Shannon Taylor—Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney—to win her August primary decisively and raise substantial funds. Recent developments include a mid-September internal poll showing the candidates essentially tied and ongoing contrasts over crime records and policy priorities ahead of the November 3 general election, with early voting already underway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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