Recent polling in North Carolina’s 1st congressional district shows incumbent Democrat Don Davis leading Republican Laurie Buckhout by margins of 6 to 10 points in surveys conducted in early October, including a GQR poll and a Neighborhood Research survey. Redistricting enacted in late 2025 shifted the district toward Republicans by incorporating more conservative coastal counties, yet Davis retains advantages from name recognition, net-positive favorability, and established voter support in eastern North Carolina. Buckhout, a retired Army colonel and former Trump administration official who won her primary, trails amid lower favorability ratings and a Libertarian candidate on the ballot. These factors underpin the current trader consensus favoring Davis ahead of the November 3 general election.
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