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Politics·Primaries

Who will win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Who will win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?

Janeese Lewis George 54%

Kenyan McDuffie 42%

Phil Mendelson 2.7%

Gary Goodweather 2.5%

Polymarket

$50,011 Vol.

Janeese Lewis George 54%

Kenyan McDuffie 42%

Phil Mendelson 2.7%

Gary Goodweather 2.5%

Polymarket

$50,011 Vol.

Janeese Lewis George

$0 Vol.

48%

Kenyan McDuffie

$0 Vol.

35%

Phil Mendelson

$0 Vol.

3%

Gary Goodweather

$16,104 Vol.

3%

Brooke Pinto

$0 Vol.

1%

Brianne K. Nadeau

$0 Vol.

1%

Robert White Jr.

$0 Vol.

1%

Muriel Bowser

$0 Vol.

1%

Karl Racine

$0 Vol.

1%

Brian Schwalb

$0 Vol.

1%

Zachary Parker

$0 Vol.

<1%

Christina Henderson

$33,908 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026. If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Councilmember Janeese Lewis George's 46.5% implied probability as frontrunner in the 2026 Democratic D.C. mayoral primary stems from her October 22 campaign launch, positioning her as a fresh progressive voice on affordable housing, public safety, and equity amid voter dissatisfaction with crime trends and budget shortfalls. Ward 5's Kenyan McDuffie holds a competitive 35%, leveraging his legislative record on economic development and anti-corruption measures, appealing to moderates in this left-leaning field. Incumbent Mayor Muriel Bowser's 1% odds reflect uncertainty over her re-election intentions, with approval ratings hovering below 50% in recent surveys. Other councilmembers like Phil Mendelson and Brianne Nadeau trail without formal announcements, underscoring an early, fluid race ahead of the June 2026 primary vote in the overwhelmingly Democratic district.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026.

If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$50,011
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026. If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Councilmember Janeese Lewis George's 46.5% implied probability as frontrunner in the 2026 Democratic D.C. mayoral primary stems from her October 22 campaign launch, positioning her as a fresh progressive voice on affordable housing, public safety, and equity amid voter dissatisfaction with crime trends and budget shortfalls. Ward 5's Kenyan McDuffie holds a competitive 35%, leveraging his legislative record on economic development and anti-corruption measures, appealing to moderates in this left-leaning field. Incumbent Mayor Muriel Bowser's 1% odds reflect uncertainty over her re-election intentions, with approval ratings hovering below 50% in recent surveys. Other councilmembers like Phil Mendelson and Brianne Nadeau trail without formal announcements, underscoring an early, fluid race ahead of the June 2026 primary vote in the overwhelmingly Democratic district.

Councilmember Janeese Lewis George's 46.5% implied probability as frontrunner in the 2026 Democratic D.C. mayoral primary stems from her October 22 campaign launch, positioning her as a fresh progressive voice on affordable housing, public safety, and equity amid voter dissatisfaction with crime trends and budget shortfalls. Ward 5's Kenyan McDuffie holds a competitive 35%, leveraging his legislative record on economic development and anti-corruption measures, appealing to moderates in this left-leaning field. Incumbent Mayor Muriel Bowser's 1% odds reflect uncertainty over her re-election intentions, with approval ratings hovering below 50% in recent surveys. Other councilmembers like Phil Mendelson and Brianne Nadeau trail without formal announcements, underscoring an early, fluid race ahead of the June 2026 primary vote in the overwhelmingly Democratic district.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Janeese Lewis George" at 48%, followed by "Kenyan McDuffie" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?" has generated $50K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?" is "Janeese Lewis George" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kenyan McDuffie" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.