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Politics·Primaries

CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner

Manny Rutinel 79%

Shannon Bird 20%

Yadira Caraveo <1%

John Szemler <1%

Polymarket

$19,250 Vol.

Manny Rutinel 79%

Shannon Bird 20%

Yadira Caraveo <1%

John Szemler <1%

Polymarket

$19,250 Vol.

Manny Rutinel

$12,256 Vol.

79%

Shannon Bird

$2,499 Vol.

20%

Yadira Caraveo

$858 Vol.

<1%

John Szemler

$1,027 Vol.

<1%

Amie Baca-Oehlert

$1,142 Vol.

<1%

Dave Young

$1,468 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Rep. Manny Rutinel commands trader consensus at 78.5% implied probability to win Colorado's 8th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 30, driven by his dominant fundraising—over $3 million cash on hand, dwarfing rivals by 23-to-1—and aggressive $50,000 digital ad buy targeting former Rep. Shannon Bird's votes bolstering ICE cooperation, resonating with Latino voters in this swing district. A new poll released yesterday confirms a two-candidate race, with Rutinel consolidating support amid Bird's 19.5% share and moderate backers like New Democrat Coalition and EMILYs List. Incumbent Yadira Caraveo withdrew in September 2025 over health concerns; minor candidates trail far behind as independents (44% of voters) loom large for the general against GOP Rep. Gabe Evans. Late endorsements or turnout surges could narrow the gap.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,250
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Rep. Manny Rutinel commands trader consensus at 78.5% implied probability to win Colorado's 8th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 30, driven by his dominant fundraising—over $3 million cash on hand, dwarfing rivals by 23-to-1—and aggressive $50,000 digital ad buy targeting former Rep. Shannon Bird's votes bolstering ICE cooperation, resonating with Latino voters in this swing district. A new poll released yesterday confirms a two-candidate race, with Rutinel consolidating support amid Bird's 19.5% share and moderate backers like New Democrat Coalition and EMILYs List. Incumbent Yadira Caraveo withdrew in September 2025 over health concerns; minor candidates trail far behind as independents (44% of voters) loom large for the general against GOP Rep. Gabe Evans. Late endorsements or turnout surges could narrow the gap.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,250
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Manny Rutinel" at 79%, followed by "Shannon Bird" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $19.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Manny Rutinel" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Shannon Bird" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.