Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72% implied probability of President-elect Donald Trump's approval rating declining this week, driven by fresh polling data and transition turbulence. Recent surveys from Morning Consult and Rasmussen show a 2-3 point dip from last week's post-election highs, coinciding with Matt Gaetz's withdrawal as Attorney General nominee amid a House Ethics Committee probe into alleged misconduct. GOP senators voiced reservations over picks like Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence and Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary, amplifying perceptions of disarray. Public rifts, including MAGA base splits over Elon Musk's H-1B visa advocacy, have fueled negative media coverage, eroding the typical incoming administration honeymoon bounce amid looming debt ceiling talks and confirmation hearings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUp
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
Up
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on March 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72% implied probability of President-elect Donald Trump's approval rating declining this week, driven by fresh polling data and transition turbulence. Recent surveys from Morning Consult and Rasmussen show a 2-3 point dip from last week's post-election highs, coinciding with Matt Gaetz's withdrawal as Attorney General nominee amid a House Ethics Committee probe into alleged misconduct. GOP senators voiced reservations over picks like Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence and Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary, amplifying perceptions of disarray. Public rifts, including MAGA base splits over Elon Musk's H-1B visa advocacy, have fueled negative media coverage, eroding the typical incoming administration honeymoon bounce amid looming debt ceiling talks and confirmation hearings.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on March 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$352End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on March 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72% implied probability of President-elect Donald Trump's approval rating declining this week, driven by fresh polling data and transition turbulence. Recent surveys from Morning Consult and Rasmussen show a 2-3 point dip from last week's post-election highs, coinciding with Matt Gaetz's withdrawal as Attorney General nominee amid a House Ethics Committee probe into alleged misconduct. GOP senators voiced reservations over picks like Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence and Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary, amplifying perceptions of disarray. Public rifts, including MAGA base splits over Elon Musk's H-1B visa advocacy, have fueled negative media coverage, eroding the typical incoming administration honeymoon bounce amid looming debt ceiling talks and confirmation hearings.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on March 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$352End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72% implied probability of President-elect Donald Trump's approval rating declining this week, driven by fresh polling data and transition turbulence. Recent surveys from Morning Consult and Rasmussen show a 2-3 point dip from last week's post-election highs, coinciding with Matt Gaetz's withdrawal as Attorney General nominee amid a House Ethics Committee probe into alleged misconduct. GOP senators voiced reservations over picks like Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence and Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary, amplifying perceptions of disarray. Public rifts, including MAGA base splits over Elon Musk's H-1B visa advocacy, have fueled negative media coverage, eroding the typical incoming administration honeymoon bounce amid looming debt ceiling talks and confirmation hearings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions