Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$271,553 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 18
No
March 19
No
March 20
No
March 21
No
March 22
No
March 23
No
March 24
No
March 25
No
March 26
No
March 27
No
March 28
No
March 29
No
March 30
Yes
March 31
No
$271,553 Vol.
March 18
$0 Vol.
No
March 19
$0 Vol.
No
March 20
$0 Vol.
No
March 21
$0 Vol.
No
March 22
$0 Vol.
No
March 23
$0 Vol.
No
March 24
$7,923 Vol.
No
March 25
$33,950 Vol.
No
March 26
$7,926 Vol.
No
March 27
$22,660 Vol.
No
March 28
$8,522 Vol.
No
March 29
$10,702 Vol.
No
March 30
$21,407 Vol.
Yes
March 31
$158,464 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$271,553End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$271,553End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since early March, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, successfully targeting multiple commercial vessels with drones, missiles, and fast boats, including an Israel-linked ship set ablaze on April 4. This has slashed daily transits from over 130 to fewer than 15, disrupting global oil flows and spiking prices. On April 5, President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to halt attacks and reopen the strait, warning of devastating retaliation targeting power plants and infrastructure. Iranian officials defied the ultimatum, threatening broader shipping lanes, as Houthi allies eye Red Sea escalation; a US-led forcible reopening remains a high-risk flashpoint amid ongoing airstrikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions