President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a May 19 helicopter crash triggered Iran's constitutional requirement for a snap presidential election within 50 days, targeting early July and rendering a vote by June 30 improbable. Traders reflect this in the 92.7% "No" consensus, as the Guardian Council has approved only six candidates amid vetting but delayed announcing a date, citing logistical hurdles and a five-day mourning extension. Acting President Mohammad Mokhber oversees the transition under Supreme Leader Khamenei's guidance, with no signals of accelerating the timeline despite international scrutiny on Iran's stability. Late-breaking announcements or procedural shifts could still alter odds, though historical snap election patterns favor the full window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?
$183,230 Vol.
$183,230 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$183,230 Vol.
$183,230 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a May 19 helicopter crash triggered Iran's constitutional requirement for a snap presidential election within 50 days, targeting early July and rendering a vote by June 30 improbable. Traders reflect this in the 92.7% "No" consensus, as the Guardian Council has approved only six candidates amid vetting but delayed announcing a date, citing logistical hurdles and a five-day mourning extension. Acting President Mohammad Mokhber oversees the transition under Supreme Leader Khamenei's guidance, with no signals of accelerating the timeline despite international scrutiny on Iran's stability. Late-breaking announcements or procedural shifts could still alter odds, though historical snap election patterns favor the full window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$183,230End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a May 19 helicopter crash triggered Iran's constitutional requirement for a snap presidential election within 50 days, targeting early July and rendering a vote by June 30 improbable. Traders reflect this in the 92.7% "No" consensus, as the Guardian Council has approved only six candidates amid vetting but delayed announcing a date, citing logistical hurdles and a five-day mourning extension. Acting President Mohammad Mokhber oversees the transition under Supreme Leader Khamenei's guidance, with no signals of accelerating the timeline despite international scrutiny on Iran's stability. Late-breaking announcements or procedural shifts could still alter odds, though historical snap election patterns favor the full window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$183,230End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a May 19 helicopter crash triggered Iran's constitutional requirement for a snap presidential election within 50 days, targeting early July and rendering a vote by June 30 improbable. Traders reflect this in the 92.7% "No" consensus, as the Guardian Council has approved only six candidates amid vetting but delayed announcing a date, citing logistical hurdles and a five-day mourning extension. Acting President Mohammad Mokhber oversees the transition under Supreme Leader Khamenei's guidance, with no signals of accelerating the timeline despite international scrutiny on Iran's stability. Late-breaking announcements or procedural shifts could still alter odds, though historical snap election patterns favor the full window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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