US diplomatic normalization with Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, marked by the embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions lift on April 2, signals de-escalation three months after the January 3 military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, driving trader consensus toward lower probabilities of renewed US troop entry. Persistent threats from regime loyalists like Diosdado Cabello and armed colectivos prompted President Trump's mid-March directive for direct military oversight by Secretary Pete Hegseth, yet no fresh ground incursions have occurred. Traders monitor transition stability, potential elections, and oil negotiations as catalysts that could prompt re-entry amid fragile bilateral relations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,260,924 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
March 31
1%
June 30
10%
$1,260,924 Vol.
March 31
$4,076 Vol.
1%
June 30
$176,760 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic normalization with Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, marked by the embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions lift on April 2, signals de-escalation three months after the January 3 military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, driving trader consensus toward lower probabilities of renewed US troop entry. Persistent threats from regime loyalists like Diosdado Cabello and armed colectivos prompted President Trump's mid-March directive for direct military oversight by Secretary Pete Hegseth, yet no fresh ground incursions have occurred. Traders monitor transition stability, potential elections, and oil negotiations as catalysts that could prompt re-entry amid fragile bilateral relations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$1,260,924End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US diplomatic normalization with Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, marked by the embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions lift on April 2, signals de-escalation three months after the January 3 military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, driving trader consensus toward lower probabilities of renewed US troop entry. Persistent threats from regime loyalists like Diosdado Cabello and armed colectivos prompted President Trump's mid-March directive for direct military oversight by Secretary Pete Hegseth, yet no fresh ground incursions have occurred. Traders monitor transition stability, potential elections, and oil negotiations as catalysts that could prompt re-entry amid fragile bilateral relations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,260,924End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US diplomatic normalization with Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, marked by the embassy reopening in Caracas on March 30 and sanctions lift on April 2, signals de-escalation three months after the January 3 military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, driving trader consensus toward lower probabilities of renewed US troop entry. Persistent threats from regime loyalists like Diosdado Cabello and armed colectivos prompted President Trump's mid-March directive for direct military oversight by Secretary Pete Hegseth, yet no fresh ground incursions have occurred. Traders monitor transition stability, potential elections, and oil negotiations as catalysts that could prompt re-entry amid fragile bilateral relations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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