Trader consensus prices an 78.5% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled diplomatic momentum following Kazakhstan's accession in November 2025. Saudi Arabia remains the frontrunner candidate, but recent public urging by President Trump at events in late March 2026 has produced no breakthroughs, with Riyadh continuing to condition normalization on progress toward a Palestinian state amid ongoing Iran-related regional tensions and military escalations. Other potentials like Somaliland, Syria, and Qatar show interest via informal talks or Polymarket speculation, yet lack official announcements or treaty signatures, underscoring procedural hurdles and geopolitical risks in the 10-week resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,464 Vol.
$21,464 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$21,464 Vol.
$21,464 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 78.5% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled diplomatic momentum following Kazakhstan's accession in November 2025. Saudi Arabia remains the frontrunner candidate, but recent public urging by President Trump at events in late March 2026 has produced no breakthroughs, with Riyadh continuing to condition normalization on progress toward a Palestinian state amid ongoing Iran-related regional tensions and military escalations. Other potentials like Somaliland, Syria, and Qatar show interest via informal talks or Polymarket speculation, yet lack official announcements or treaty signatures, underscoring procedural hurdles and geopolitical risks in the 10-week resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$21,464End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 78.5% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled diplomatic momentum following Kazakhstan's accession in November 2025. Saudi Arabia remains the frontrunner candidate, but recent public urging by President Trump at events in late March 2026 has produced no breakthroughs, with Riyadh continuing to condition normalization on progress toward a Palestinian state amid ongoing Iran-related regional tensions and military escalations. Other potentials like Somaliland, Syria, and Qatar show interest via informal talks or Polymarket speculation, yet lack official announcements or treaty signatures, underscoring procedural hurdles and geopolitical risks in the 10-week resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,464End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 78.5% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled diplomatic momentum following Kazakhstan's accession in November 2025. Saudi Arabia remains the frontrunner candidate, but recent public urging by President Trump at events in late March 2026 has produced no breakthroughs, with Riyadh continuing to condition normalization on progress toward a Palestinian state amid ongoing Iran-related regional tensions and military escalations. Other potentials like Somaliland, Syria, and Qatar show interest via informal talks or Polymarket speculation, yet lack official announcements or treaty signatures, underscoring procedural hurdles and geopolitical risks in the 10-week resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions