Trader consensus reflects an 86% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 amid ongoing war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, including nuclear sites like Parchin, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and escalated hostilities with Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies. Indirect talks via Pakistan stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point plan demanding zero uranium enrichment, dismantlement of facilities at Natanz and Fordow, missile limits, and end to proxy funding; Tehran countered with demands for attack halts, reparations, and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty, while its foreign minister denied negotiations and lawmakers advanced NPT withdrawal. President Trump's March 30 claim of Iranian concessions clashes with continued US strikes through March 28, highlighting irreconcilable gaps and slim prospects before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
$125,766 Vol.
$125,766 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$125,766 Vol.
$125,766 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects an 86% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 amid ongoing war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, including nuclear sites like Parchin, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and escalated hostilities with Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies. Indirect talks via Pakistan stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point plan demanding zero uranium enrichment, dismantlement of facilities at Natanz and Fordow, missile limits, and end to proxy funding; Tehran countered with demands for attack halts, reparations, and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty, while its foreign minister denied negotiations and lawmakers advanced NPT withdrawal. President Trump's March 30 claim of Iranian concessions clashes with continued US strikes through March 28, highlighting irreconcilable gaps and slim prospects before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$125,766End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects an 86% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 amid ongoing war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, including nuclear sites like Parchin, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and escalated hostilities with Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies. Indirect talks via Pakistan stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point plan demanding zero uranium enrichment, dismantlement of facilities at Natanz and Fordow, missile limits, and end to proxy funding; Tehran countered with demands for attack halts, reparations, and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty, while its foreign minister denied negotiations and lawmakers advanced NPT withdrawal. President Trump's March 30 claim of Iranian concessions clashes with continued US strikes through March 28, highlighting irreconcilable gaps and slim prospects before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$125,766End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 86% implied probability against a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 amid ongoing war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, including nuclear sites like Parchin, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and escalated hostilities with Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf allies. Indirect talks via Pakistan stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point plan demanding zero uranium enrichment, dismantlement of facilities at Natanz and Fordow, missile limits, and end to proxy funding; Tehran countered with demands for attack halts, reparations, and Strait of Hormuz sovereignty, while its foreign minister denied negotiations and lawmakers advanced NPT withdrawal. President Trump's March 30 claim of Iranian concessions clashes with continued US strikes through March 28, highlighting irreconcilable gaps and slim prospects before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions