Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 at just 6.5% likelihood, reflecting a hardened impasse in indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan amid stalled ceasefire talks. Vice President JD Vance claimed progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but reports two days later highlighted Tehran's resistance to upfront nuclear concessions like halting uranium enrichment and surrendering stockpiles—core US demands for any accord stricter than the 2015 JCPOA. President Trump described the ceasefire as on "life support" earlier this week, underscoring deep divides over verification, sanctions relief, and ballistic missiles. With only 16 days left, traders see major barriers outweighing diplomatic signals, though late breakthroughs remain possible via multilateral pressure including recent US-China alignment against Iranian weaponization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
$592,088 Vol.
$592,088 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$592,088 Vol.
$592,088 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 at just 6.5% likelihood, reflecting a hardened impasse in indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan amid stalled ceasefire talks. Vice President JD Vance claimed progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but reports two days later highlighted Tehran's resistance to upfront nuclear concessions like halting uranium enrichment and surrendering stockpiles—core US demands for any accord stricter than the 2015 JCPOA. President Trump described the ceasefire as on "life support" earlier this week, underscoring deep divides over verification, sanctions relief, and ballistic missiles. With only 16 days left, traders see major barriers outweighing diplomatic signals, though late breakthroughs remain possible via multilateral pressure including recent US-China alignment against Iranian weaponization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volume
$592,088End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 at just 6.5% likelihood, reflecting a hardened impasse in indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan amid stalled ceasefire talks. Vice President JD Vance claimed progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but reports two days later highlighted Tehran's resistance to upfront nuclear concessions like halting uranium enrichment and surrendering stockpiles—core US demands for any accord stricter than the 2015 JCPOA. President Trump described the ceasefire as on "life support" earlier this week, underscoring deep divides over verification, sanctions relief, and ballistic missiles. With only 16 days left, traders see major barriers outweighing diplomatic signals, though late breakthroughs remain possible via multilateral pressure including recent US-China alignment against Iranian weaponization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$592,088End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 at just 6.5% likelihood, reflecting a hardened impasse in indirect negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan amid stalled ceasefire talks. Vice President JD Vance claimed progress on May 13 toward ending hostilities, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but reports two days later highlighted Tehran's resistance to upfront nuclear concessions like halting uranium enrichment and surrendering stockpiles—core US demands for any accord stricter than the 2015 JCPOA. President Trump described the ceasefire as on "life support" earlier this week, underscoring deep divides over verification, sanctions relief, and ballistic missiles. With only 16 days left, traders see major barriers outweighing diplomatic signals, though late breakthroughs remain possible via multilateral pressure including recent US-China alignment against Iranian weaponization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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