Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) troops crossed the Litani River in southern Lebanon last week, with the Golani Brigade establishing operational control north of the waterway during operations against Hezbollah strongholds. The Israeli army publicly confirmed the advance several days ago, including heavy vehicles traversing bridges, as frontline positions pushed forward despite a fragile ceasefire—driving trader consensus to 100% "Yes" probability well ahead of the June 30 deadline. This marks the first such crossing since 2000 amid the 2026 Lebanon war's escalation, following prior airstrikes on Litani crossings and evacuation orders. While verified by multiple reports, unlikely scenarios like rapid withdrawal or disputed verification could theoretically impact resolution, though current positioning solidifies the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$781,907 Vol.
$781,907 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$781,907 Vol.
$781,907 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) troops crossed the Litani River in southern Lebanon last week, with the Golani Brigade establishing operational control north of the waterway during operations against Hezbollah strongholds. The Israeli army publicly confirmed the advance several days ago, including heavy vehicles traversing bridges, as frontline positions pushed forward despite a fragile ceasefire—driving trader consensus to 100% "Yes" probability well ahead of the June 30 deadline. This marks the first such crossing since 2000 amid the 2026 Lebanon war's escalation, following prior airstrikes on Litani crossings and evacuation orders. While verified by multiple reports, unlikely scenarios like rapid withdrawal or disputed verification could theoretically impact resolution, though current positioning solidifies the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$781,907End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) troops crossed the Litani River in southern Lebanon last week, with the Golani Brigade establishing operational control north of the waterway during operations against Hezbollah strongholds. The Israeli army publicly confirmed the advance several days ago, including heavy vehicles traversing bridges, as frontline positions pushed forward despite a fragile ceasefire—driving trader consensus to 100% "Yes" probability well ahead of the June 30 deadline. This marks the first such crossing since 2000 amid the 2026 Lebanon war's escalation, following prior airstrikes on Litani crossings and evacuation orders. While verified by multiple reports, unlikely scenarios like rapid withdrawal or disputed verification could theoretically impact resolution, though current positioning solidifies the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$781,907End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) troops crossed the Litani River in southern Lebanon last week, with the Golani Brigade establishing operational control north of the waterway during operations against Hezbollah strongholds. The Israeli army publicly confirmed the advance several days ago, including heavy vehicles traversing bridges, as frontline positions pushed forward despite a fragile ceasefire—driving trader consensus to 100% "Yes" probability well ahead of the June 30 deadline. This marks the first such crossing since 2000 amid the 2026 Lebanon war's escalation, following prior airstrikes on Litani crossings and evacuation orders. While verified by multiple reports, unlikely scenarios like rapid withdrawal or disputed verification could theoretically impact resolution, though current positioning solidifies the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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