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Geopolitics·Pakistan

Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Pakistan

Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?

$31,715 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$31,715 Vol.

Polymarket

April 30

$828 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Pakistan's military has conducted multiple cross-border airstrikes targeting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts in Kabul and other Afghan areas since February 2026, prompting Taliban retaliation, civilian casualty claims, and a brief Eid truce ending March 26 with resumed operations, including strikes on a Kabul medical facility. Early April saw "useful" peace talks between Kabul and Islamabad to curb militant incursions, but tensions persist amid Taliban threats of drone strikes on Pakistani cities voiced April 17. Trader consensus weighs diplomatic de-escalation against TTP attacks from Afghan soil, with no confirmed new Kabul strikes in the past week; further border clashes or negotiation breakthroughs could shift odds before any resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$31,715
End Date
Apr 15, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 2:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Pakistan's military has conducted multiple cross-border airstrikes targeting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts in Kabul and other Afghan areas since February 2026, prompting Taliban retaliation, civilian casualty claims, and a brief Eid truce ending March 26 with resumed operations, including strikes on a Kabul medical facility. Early April saw "useful" peace talks between Kabul and Islamabad to curb militant incursions, but tensions persist amid Taliban threats of drone strikes on Pakistani cities voiced April 17. Trader consensus weighs diplomatic de-escalation against TTP attacks from Afghan soil, with no confirmed new Kabul strikes in the past week; further border clashes or negotiation breakthroughs could shift odds before any resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$31,715
End Date
Apr 15, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 2:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 19%, followed by "March 31" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?" has generated $31.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?" is "April 30" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.