**India-Pakistan tensions remain elevated following India's May 2025 Operation Sindoor strikes on terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, launched after the Pahalgam attack that killed 26 civilians.** At the UN in early October 2026, India reiterated its three principles—no tolerance for terrorism, rejection of nuclear blackmail, and no distinction between sponsors and perpetrators—while Pakistan warned against India's declared policy of strikes on any pretext and pledged full-spectrum deterrence. Diplomatic channels stay frozen, with no high-level talks since 2016, the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, and recent minor border and naval incidents adding friction. Indian officials have signaled readiness for stronger responses to future provocations, while both sides maintain conventional and nuclear postures amid unresolved disputes over Kashmir and cross-border militancy. These dynamics shape trader assessments of escalation risks in the near term.