India’s 2025 Operation Sindoor strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, followed by Pakistani retaliation and Indian counterstrikes on air bases, produced a U.S.-brokered ceasefire that has held into late 2026. Indian officials continue to frame any future attack originating from Pakistani soil as an act of war warranting a stronger conventional response, while rejecting nuclear coercion and suspending aspects of the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan has warned the UN of India’s asserted “new normal” of preemptive strikes and reaffirmed full-spectrum deterrence. With diplomatic channels frozen, no major cross-border terrorist incidents reported since the Pahalgam attack, and both sides maintaining high alert along the Line of Control, traders assign low probability to another qualifying Indian drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory before the end of 2026. Any fresh terror incident or LoC escalation could rapidly alter that assessment.