Eileen Gu, a natural-born U.S. citizen by birthplace and parentage, faces no active denaturalization proceedings or qualifying offenses such as naturalization fraud, espionage, or concealment of serious crimes that have prompted recent Justice Department actions against dozens of others. Her longstanding choice to represent China in competition since 2019 has generated public debate and criticism over dual-nationality rules, but China’s non-recognition of dual citizenship has produced no documented U.S. revocation efforts or official announcements targeting her status. Traders’ 98.5% implied probability on “No” reflects this lack of legal catalyst, consistent with the high bar for stripping birthright citizenship absent clear statutory grounds. Late developments capable of shifting odds would require unprecedented new evidence of disqualifying conduct or policy changes expanding revocation authority.