US law narrowly limits revocation of birthright citizenship to specific statutory grounds such as naturalization fraud or certain criminal conduct, none of which apply to athletic representation of another country. Eileen Gu acquired US citizenship at birth and has faced no DOJ proceedings, executive actions, or congressional proposals targeting her status despite online commentary during the 2026 Winter Olympics. Naturalization in China does not trigger automatic loss of US citizenship under federal regulations, and no public record shows formal expatriation. Traders assign 98.6% probability to “No” by December 31, 2026, reflecting these structural protections, the absence of any active process, and the limited remaining resolution window. Shifts would require unforeseen legislative changes or new evidence of prior fraud, neither of which has emerged.