Israel and the US launched major airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, marking the onset of open conflict after prior escalations. In the past week, Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Mahshahr on April 4-5, shutting down production, while IDF operations target Iranian tunnel networks to disrupt missile concealment. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages and threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. On April 15, IDF Chief Eyal Zamir confirmed approved plans for further strikes on Iran amid ceasefire talks contingent on Iran halting Hormuz disruptions. Bettors eye pending Pentagon briefings, negotiation outcomes, and proxy actions by Hezbollah for shifts in escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael military action against Iran by...?
Israel military action against Iran by...?
$1,676,881 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
April 14
<1%
April 21
9%
$1,676,881 Vol.
April 14
$1,177,062 Vol.
<1%
April 21
$499,900 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel and the US launched major airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, marking the onset of open conflict after prior escalations. In the past week, Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Mahshahr on April 4-5, shutting down production, while IDF operations target Iranian tunnel networks to disrupt missile concealment. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages and threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. On April 15, IDF Chief Eyal Zamir confirmed approved plans for further strikes on Iran amid ceasefire talks contingent on Iran halting Hormuz disruptions. Bettors eye pending Pentagon briefings, negotiation outcomes, and proxy actions by Hezbollah for shifts in escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$1,676,881End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel and the US launched major airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, marking the onset of open conflict after prior escalations. In the past week, Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Mahshahr on April 4-5, shutting down production, while IDF operations target Iranian tunnel networks to disrupt missile concealment. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages and threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. On April 15, IDF Chief Eyal Zamir confirmed approved plans for further strikes on Iran amid ceasefire talks contingent on Iran halting Hormuz disruptions. Bettors eye pending Pentagon briefings, negotiation outcomes, and proxy actions by Hezbollah for shifts in escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,676,881End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel and the US launched major airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, marking the onset of open conflict after prior escalations. In the past week, Israel struck Iran's largest petrochemical complex in Mahshahr on April 4-5, shutting down production, while IDF operations target Iranian tunnel networks to disrupt missile concealment. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages and threatened Strait of Hormuz blockade, prompting US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation. On April 15, IDF Chief Eyal Zamir confirmed approved plans for further strikes on Iran amid ceasefire talks contingent on Iran halting Hormuz disruptions. Bettors eye pending Pentagon briefings, negotiation outcomes, and proxy actions by Hezbollah for shifts in escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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