President Trump announced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, 2026, just before a self-imposed deadline, in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid negotiations over its nuclear program, regional proxies, and sanctions relief. The truce, now on day 11, faces mounting strain as Iran reimposed shipping restrictions on the strait within the past 24 hours, blaming US "breaches of trust," while the US upholds a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Trump signaled no extension beyond the April 21 deadline absent a broader deal, warning of potential airstrikes or escalation. Traders monitor for first violations—such as missile launches, blockades, or military actions—with possible talks resumption eyed in the next two days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?
$935,896 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
April 21
22%
$935,896 Vol.
April 21
$276,292 Vol.
22%
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump announced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, 2026, just before a self-imposed deadline, in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid negotiations over its nuclear program, regional proxies, and sanctions relief. The truce, now on day 11, faces mounting strain as Iran reimposed shipping restrictions on the strait within the past 24 hours, blaming US "breaches of trust," while the US upholds a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Trump signaled no extension beyond the April 21 deadline absent a broader deal, warning of potential airstrikes or escalation. Traders monitor for first violations—such as missile launches, blockades, or military actions—with possible talks resumption eyed in the next two days.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
Volume
$935,896End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump announced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, 2026, just before a self-imposed deadline, in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid negotiations over its nuclear program, regional proxies, and sanctions relief. The truce, now on day 11, faces mounting strain as Iran reimposed shipping restrictions on the strait within the past 24 hours, blaming US "breaches of trust," while the US upholds a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Trump signaled no extension beyond the April 21 deadline absent a broader deal, warning of potential airstrikes or escalation. Traders monitor for first violations—such as missile launches, blockades, or military actions—with possible talks resumption eyed in the next two days.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$935,896End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump announced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, 2026, just before a self-imposed deadline, in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid negotiations over its nuclear program, regional proxies, and sanctions relief. The truce, now on day 11, faces mounting strain as Iran reimposed shipping restrictions on the strait within the past 24 hours, blaming US "breaches of trust," while the US upholds a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Trump signaled no extension beyond the April 21 deadline absent a broader deal, warning of potential airstrikes or escalation. Traders monitor for first violations—such as missile launches, blockades, or military actions—with possible talks resumption eyed in the next two days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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