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Economy·Economic Policy

Central Bank of Colombia Decision in March?

Market icon
Economy·Economic Policy

Central Bank of Colombia Decision in March?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Increase 98.4%

No change 1.6%

Decrease <1%

Polymarket

$159,375 Vol.

Increase 98.4%

No change 1.6%

Decrease <1%

Polymarket

$159,375 Vol.

Decrease

$141,146 Vol.

<1%

No change

$5,624 Vol.

2%

Increase

$12,605 Vol.

98%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the monetary policy rate as a result of the Central Bank of Colombia's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Central Bank of Colombia after its March 31, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos. This market may resolve as soon as the Central Bank of Colombia's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 98.4% implied probability for the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República) to hike its policy rate at the March 27-28 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures exceeding the 3% target. January's CPI eased slightly to 9.28% year-over-year but core measures remained sticky above 8%, while peso depreciation amid U.S. rate differentials and domestic fiscal concerns has fueled imported inflation risks. Hawkish January board minutes and the prior 25 basis point hike to 13.25% reinforce this positioning, aligning with the monetary policy tightening cycle since 2021. Upside risks to the peso or unexpectedly soft February inflation data could challenge this near-unanimous view ahead of the decision.

Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 98.4% implied probability for the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República) to hike its policy rate at the March 27-28 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures exceeding the 3% target. January's CPI eased slightly to 9.28% year-over-year but core measures remained sticky above 8%, while peso depreciation amid U.S. rate differentials and domestic fiscal concerns has fueled imported inflation risks. Hawkish January board minutes and the prior 25 basis point hike to 13.25% reinforce this positioning, aligning with the monetary policy tightening cycle since 2021. Upside risks to the peso or unexpectedly soft February inflation data could challenge this near-unanimous view ahead of the decision.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the monetary policy rate as a result of the Central Bank of Colombia's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Central Bank of Colombia after its March 31, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos. This market may resolve as soon as the Central Bank of Colombia's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 98.4% implied probability for the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República) to hike its policy rate at the March 27-28 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures exceeding the 3% target. January's CPI eased slightly to 9.28% year-over-year but core measures remained sticky above 8%, while peso depreciation amid U.S. rate differentials and domestic fiscal concerns has fueled imported inflation risks. Hawkish January board minutes and the prior 25 basis point hike to 13.25% reinforce this positioning, aligning with the monetary policy tightening cycle since 2021. Upside risks to the peso or unexpectedly soft February inflation data could challenge this near-unanimous view ahead of the decision.

Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 98.4% implied probability for the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República) to hike its policy rate at the March 27-28 meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures exceeding the 3% target. January's CPI eased slightly to 9.28% year-over-year but core measures remained sticky above 8%, while peso depreciation amid U.S. rate differentials and domestic fiscal concerns has fueled imported inflation risks. Hawkish January board minutes and the prior 25 basis point hike to 13.25% reinforce this positioning, aligning with the monetary policy tightening cycle since 2021. Upside risks to the peso or unexpectedly soft February inflation data could challenge this near-unanimous view ahead of the decision.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Central Bank of Colombia Decision in March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Increase" at 98%, followed by "No change" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Central Bank of Colombia Decision in March?" has generated $159.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Central Bank of Colombia Decision in March?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Central Bank of Colombia Decision in March?" is "Increase" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No change" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Central Bank of Colombia Decision in March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.