Polymarket traders price a 38.8% implied probability for Canada 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 3.5-3.9% range, narrowly ahead of 30.9% for 3.0-3.4%, reflecting sticky core measures despite headline relief. February 2026 CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 1.9% consensus—driven by base effects from the expiring GST/HST holiday, but CPI-trim and CPI-median core gauges held near 2.8%, signaling persistent shelter and services pressures. Anticipated oil price surges, termed an "energy shock" by analysts, are poised to lift later-year readings, challenging Bank of Canada projections near its 2% target. The Bank held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18 amid global uncertainties. Key swing factors include March CPI (April 20 release) and April 29 FOMC-equivalent meeting, with oil trajectories and wage data differentiating outcomes in this tight contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
3.0-3.4% 39.7%
3.5-3.9% 38.6%
2.0–2.4% 16%
2.5–2.9% 13%
$15,759 Vol.
$15,759 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
6%
1.0–1.4%
<1%
1.5–1.9%
3%
2.0–2.4%
11%
2.5–2.9%
21%
3.0-3.4%
30%
3.5-3.9%
39%
4.0%+
21%
3.0-3.4% 39.7%
3.5-3.9% 38.6%
2.0–2.4% 16%
2.5–2.9% 13%
$15,759 Vol.
$15,759 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
$282 Vol.
6%
1.0–1.4%
$303 Vol.
<1%
1.5–1.9%
$568 Vol.
3%
2.0–2.4%
$338 Vol.
11%
2.5–2.9%
$459 Vol.
21%
3.0-3.4%
$13,221 Vol.
30%
3.5-3.9%
$263 Vol.
39%
4.0%+
$325 Vol.
21%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Polymarket traders price a 38.8% implied probability for Canada 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 3.5-3.9% range, narrowly ahead of 30.9% for 3.0-3.4%, reflecting sticky core measures despite headline relief. February 2026 CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 1.9% consensus—driven by base effects from the expiring GST/HST holiday, but CPI-trim and CPI-median core gauges held near 2.8%, signaling persistent shelter and services pressures. Anticipated oil price surges, termed an "energy shock" by analysts, are poised to lift later-year readings, challenging Bank of Canada projections near its 2% target. The Bank held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18 amid global uncertainties. Key swing factors include March CPI (April 20 release) and April 29 FOMC-equivalent meeting, with oil trajectories and wage data differentiating outcomes in this tight contest.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$15,759End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Polymarket traders price a 38.8% implied probability for Canada 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 3.5-3.9% range, narrowly ahead of 30.9% for 3.0-3.4%, reflecting sticky core measures despite headline relief. February 2026 CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 1.9% consensus—driven by base effects from the expiring GST/HST holiday, but CPI-trim and CPI-median core gauges held near 2.8%, signaling persistent shelter and services pressures. Anticipated oil price surges, termed an "energy shock" by analysts, are poised to lift later-year readings, challenging Bank of Canada projections near its 2% target. The Bank held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18 amid global uncertainties. Key swing factors include March CPI (April 20 release) and April 29 FOMC-equivalent meeting, with oil trajectories and wage data differentiating outcomes in this tight contest.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$15,759End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 38.8% implied probability for Canada 2026 annual CPI inflation in the 3.5-3.9% range, narrowly ahead of 30.9% for 3.0-3.4%, reflecting sticky core measures despite headline relief. February 2026 CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 1.9% consensus—driven by base effects from the expiring GST/HST holiday, but CPI-trim and CPI-median core gauges held near 2.8%, signaling persistent shelter and services pressures. Anticipated oil price surges, termed an "energy shock" by analysts, are poised to lift later-year readings, challenging Bank of Canada projections near its 2% target. The Bank held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18 amid global uncertainties. Key swing factors include March CPI (April 20 release) and April 29 FOMC-equivalent meeting, with oil trajectories and wage data differentiating outcomes in this tight contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions