Recent monthly CPI readings holding at 3.0% year-over-year through August 2026, fueled by energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, anchor trader expectations for Canada's full-year 2026 inflation near the 3.0-3.9% range. Core measures tracked by the Bank of Canada remain near 2%, indicating limited broad-based pass-through, while gasoline and transportation components account for most of the headline elevation. The policy rate at 2.25% and subdued labor market data reinforce a cautious stance, with markets balancing risks from persistent oil volatility against potential moderation if refinery margins ease. Upcoming September CPI on October 19 and any tariff-related developments represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the closely contested 37.6% and 36.6% probabilities on the 3.0-3.4% and 3.5-3.9% buckets.