Recent energy price surges tied to Middle East supply disruptions have lifted Canada's April 2026 headline CPI to 2.8% year-over-year from 2.4% in March, prompting the closest contest among Polymarket ranges for the full-year 2026 inflation outcome. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to 2.5–2.9% at 46.3%, reflecting the Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report view that core measures remain anchored near 2.1% and the shock is likely transitory, while elevated odds on 4.0%+ (38.6%) and 3.5–3.9% (36.8%) capture risks of broader pass-through if oil volatility persists. Subdued labor market conditions and expectations for policy rates near the neutral 2.25% level further support the moderate central band, though upcoming monthly CPI prints through year-end could shift sentiment if energy effects linger.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2.5–2.9% 48.7%
3.5-3.9% 35.0%
2.0~2.4% 20.0%
1.0~1.4% 1.2%
$16,413 거래량
$16,413 거래량
1.0% 미만
1%
1.0~1.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
40%
2.0~2.4%
19%
2.5–2.9%
49%
3.0-3.4%
32%
3.5-3.9%
35%
4.0% 이상
39%
2.5–2.9% 48.7%
3.5-3.9% 35.0%
2.0~2.4% 20.0%
1.0~1.4% 1.2%
$16,413 거래량
$16,413 거래량
1.0% 미만
1%
1.0~1.4%
6%
1.5–1.9%
40%
2.0~2.4%
19%
2.5–2.9%
49%
3.0-3.4%
32%
3.5-3.9%
35%
4.0% 이상
39%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
마켓 개설일: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent energy price surges tied to Middle East supply disruptions have lifted Canada's April 2026 headline CPI to 2.8% year-over-year from 2.4% in March, prompting the closest contest among Polymarket ranges for the full-year 2026 inflation outcome. Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to 2.5–2.9% at 46.3%, reflecting the Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report view that core measures remain anchored near 2.1% and the shock is likely transitory, while elevated odds on 4.0%+ (38.6%) and 3.5–3.9% (36.8%) capture risks of broader pass-through if oil volatility persists. Subdued labor market conditions and expectations for policy rates near the neutral 2.25% level further support the moderate central band, though upcoming monthly CPI prints through year-end could shift sentiment if energy effects linger.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문