Recent Canadian CPI prints holding at 3.0% year-over-year through August 2026, driven by elevated gasoline prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, have anchored Polymarket odds on the 3.0-3.4% and 3.5-3.9% bands for full-year 2026 inflation. Core measures remain near the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, with limited evidence of broad pass-through to goods and services prices, while labor-market slack and subdued wage growth provide offsetting downward pressure. Traders appear to weigh the risk that volatile oil futures and potential U.S. trade policy spillovers sustain headline readings above official projections, which anticipate easing toward 2.5% in the second half. The closely contested top outcomes reflect uncertainty over whether base effects and assumed margin normalization will deliver the expected moderation or whether persistent energy costs push the annual average higher; the next Statistics Canada release on October 19 and the Bank of Canada’s October policy decision represent immediate catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.