Canada’s federal government has maintained tight immigration controls through 2026, with reduced permanent resident targets around 380,000 annually and sharp cuts to temporary resident arrivals aimed at lowering the non-permanent resident share of the population to 5% by the end of 2027. Statistics Canada’s September 23 release showed the slowest annual growth in over 80 years at +0.5% through July 2026, driven by a net outflow of temporary residents including international students and workers whose permits expired amid stricter processing and lower inflows. Revised quarterly estimates erased earlier signals of outright decline but confirmed ongoing reductions in non-permanent residents, now at 6.7% of the total. With natural increase modest and analysts projecting continued net outflows through year-end under current policy settings, trader consensus assigns high probability to an overall population decrease for 2026.