Canada’s federal government has maintained tight immigration controls through the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while setting temporary resident arrivals at 385,000 for the year before further reductions. These measures, including international student caps and stricter work permit rules, have produced net outflows of non-permanent residents, driving three consecutive quarterly population declines through the first quarter of 2026 according to Statistics Canada data. Projections from the Parliamentary Budget Office anticipate flat overall growth for the calendar year as outflows of temporary residents continue to offset permanent inflows and minimal natural increase. Trader consensus favoring a net annual decline reflects these sustained policy settings and the absence of offsetting developments that would reverse the downward trajectory by year-end.