Statistics Canada's March 18 preliminary estimates reveal Canada's population fell by 103,504 (-0.2%) to 41.47 million as of January 1, 2026—the first annual decline on record—driven by a 171,296 drop in non-permanent residents amid federal immigration curbs. The government's November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan slashed new temporary resident targets to 385,000 for 2026, a 43% reduction from 2025, while holding permanent resident admissions at 380,000, reflecting pressures from housing shortages and economic strain. Traders price a 62% chance of net population decline for calendar year 2026, with quarterly data through Q1 already confirming contraction and forecasts signaling near-zero growth ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUp
Up
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Statistics Canada's March 18 preliminary estimates reveal Canada's population fell by 103,504 (-0.2%) to 41.47 million as of January 1, 2026—the first annual decline on record—driven by a 171,296 drop in non-permanent residents amid federal immigration curbs. The government's November 2025 Immigration Levels Plan slashed new temporary resident targets to 385,000 for 2026, a 43% reduction from 2025, while holding permanent resident admissions at 380,000, reflecting pressures from housing shortages and economic strain. Traders price a 62% chance of net population decline for calendar year 2026, with quarterly data through Q1 already confirming contraction and forecasts signaling near-zero growth ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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