Canada’s federal government has sharply curtailed new temporary resident arrivals to 385,000 in 2026 under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, down from prior targets near 674,000, while stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually. These measures, combined with tighter student and worker permit rules, have produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents that more than offset modest permanent inflows and natural increase. Statistics Canada data confirm three consecutive quarterly population declines through Q1 2026, with the total falling roughly 235,000 since mid-2025. Parliamentary Budget Office projections explicitly forecast flat or negative growth for the full year as the non-permanent resident share continues contracting toward the government’s sub-5% target by end-2027. With most of 2026 already elapsed under these policies, traders assign an 87.5% probability that year-end figures will show an overall decrease.