Mounting internal pressure within the Labour Party, including ministerial resignations and calls from dozens of MPs for an exit timetable, has driven elevated trader consensus on an early departure for Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Persistent negative approval ratings near -45, combined with recent by-election setbacks and local election results favoring rivals like Reform UK, have intensified speculation about a leadership process. Party rules require formal challenges and a potential contest, while a five-week summer recess slows any timeline. Starmer has stated he will not step down absent such a process. Key upcoming events include the Makerfield by-election on June 18 and ongoing coalition dynamics within Labour that could shift sentiment before year-end resolution windows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertSenior Cabinet ministers rally around Starmer amid leadership crisis
December 31 dips to 71%2%
Despite the ongoing scandal and political pressure, senior Cabinet ministers publicly supported Starmer, helping stabilize his position and contributing to a partial recovery in the market probability for his staying until the end of 2026.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat, sparking party row
June 30 drops to 30%5%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election fueled internal party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges, affecting market confidence in Starmer’s near-term survival.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat, sparking party row
December 31 jumps to 76%5%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election fueled internal Labour Party tensions and speculation about Starmer’s leadership, contributing to market volatility.
Over 90 Labour MPs demand Starmer set departure date amid leadership crisis
December 31 jumps to 73%8%
A significant number of Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer to announce a departure timetable, reflecting deep party divisions and sharply increasing market probabilities of his exit by year-end.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament, sparking internal party conflict
June 30 drops to 30%9%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election was seen as an attempt to prevent a leadership challenge to Starmer, highlighting internal party tensions and affecting market sentiment on Starmer’s future.
Starmer vows to continue governing despite mounting leadership pressure
December 31 drops to 73%14%
In response to ongoing criticism and calls for resignation, Starmer publicly committed to carrying on with his government’s work, causing a brief market correction in the probability of his departure by December 31.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham's bid for parliamentary seat, sparking internal party row
December 31 rises to 74%4%
The Labour Party's decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election was seen as an attempt to prevent a leadership challenge to Starmer. This deepened internal divisions and uncertainty about Starmer's future.
Keir Starmer Resignation Odds Peak at 87%
December 31 dips to 72%2%
Market odds reached their highest point, with Ladbrokes pricing Starmer as short as 1/7 to leave before the next general election. This reflected the culmination of multiple scandals and declining polling.
Starmer plans to step down on own terms amid Labour turmoil
December 31 rises to 72%3%
Reports emerged that Starmer intends to announce a timetable for stepping down as Prime Minister, reflecting escalating internal party pressure and signaling an impending leadership change.
Reports emerge that Starmer plans to step down on his own terms amid Labour turmoil
December 31 rises to 70%1%
Amid ongoing cabinet resignations and internal party conflict, Starmer reportedly told allies he intends to announce a timetable for stepping down, signaling an eventual departure and influencing market expectations for later exit dates.
Keir Starmer announces plans to step down as UK Prime Minister
December 31 surges to 88%20%
Starmer informed close allies of his intention to resign and is discussing a timeline for departure, causing a sharp increase in market prices for his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Keir Starmer reportedly plans to step down on his own terms amid Labour turmoil
December 31 jumps to 80%7%
Reports emerged that Starmer intends to announce a timetable for stepping down as Prime Minister, reflecting the culmination of internal party pressure and resignations. This news influenced the December 31 outcome price, increasing expectations of his eventual departure.
Starmer's Mandelson scandal peaks with May 17 price surge
December 31 surges to 89%18%
The May 17 price peak at 89% coincided with the peak of the Mandelson scandal coverage, showing the market's sensitivity to the ongoing political crisis.
Reports emerge that Keir Starmer plans to resign with an orderly transition
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Amid mounting pressure and internal party turmoil, reports surfaced that Starmer intends to step down as Prime Minister, planning an orderly transition rather than an abrupt exit, reflecting the culmination of the crisis.
Starmer visits China seeking economic boost amid strained US ties
December 31 surges to 88%15%
Starmer’s visit to China aimed to improve economic relations and offset domestic challenges, but also exposed him to criticism over national security and human rights concerns, influencing market perceptions of his political stability and contributing to price fluctuations.
Keir Starmer reportedly plans orderly resignation amid Labour rebellion
December 31 jumps to 72%5%
Reports emerged that Starmer intended to step down as Prime Minister on his own terms, announcing a timeline for an orderly transition, reflecting acceptance of his weakened position and influencing market expectations for the December 31 outcome.
Reports say Keir Starmer preparing to stand down amid Labour revolt
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
Reports emerged that Starmer had privately told friends he intended to stand down and was setting an orderly timetable for departure, though no official announcement was made. This fueled market speculation and caused sharp declines in prices for earlier resignation dates.
Labour lawmakers call for Starmer to resign following Mandelson revelations
December 31 surges to 92%21%
Increased pressure from within the Labour Party for Starmer to step down reached a peak, reflected in the market's high 'Yes' probability for his departure.
Wes Streeting challenges Keir Starmer for Labour leadership amid tensions
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting officially announced his leadership challenge against Starmer, reflecting deepening party divisions. This announcement increased market expectations for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Market surge in Starmer resignation odds amid intensified leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 92%36%
Market prices for Starmer leaving office by December 31 peaked at 92% on May 16, reflecting heightened expectations of his resignation due to ongoing political instability and ministerial departures.
Reports say Keir Starmer may be preparing to stand down amid Labour revolt
December 31 surges to 87%18%
Reports emerged that Starmer had privately told friends he intends to stand down and set an orderly timetable for his departure, though no official resignation was announced. This fueled market speculation and increased the likelihood of Starmer leaving office by the end of 2025 and mid-2026.
Reports say Keir Starmer preparing to stand down with orderly timetable
December 31 surges to 80%18%
Multiple reports, including from Daily Mail and ITV, indicated Starmer privately intends to resign and is setting a departure timetable, though no official announcement was made, causing market spikes in longer-term resignation odds.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson‑Epstein fallout
December 31 jumps to 88%14%
The resignation of Starmer’s chief of staff over the Mandelson scandal signaled internal turmoil and reinforced market expectations of a possible leadership change, contributing to the final surge toward 88% confidence.
Labour Party unrest intensifies with leadership challenge threat
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Labour MPs openly called for Starmer's resignation and threatened a leadership challenge, with Wes Streeting announcing his intention to challenge Starmer. This internal party strife increased market odds for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Starmer apologizes to Epstein victims amid leadership pressure
December 31 jumps to 88%14%
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson, acknowledging the damage caused and facing increased calls for his resignation, which influenced market volatility and price swings.
Wes Streeting challenges Keir Starmer for Labour leadership amid cross-party tensions
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting officially announced his intention to challenge Starmer for Labour Party leadership, signaling significant internal party tensions. This announcement increased market odds for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Starmer’s leadership support surges amid intensified Mandelson-Epstein scandal revelations
December 31 surges to 87%25%
Following new revelations and Starmer’s public apology for Mandelson’s appointment, the market saw a sharp increase in the probability of Starmer leaving by December 31, reflecting heightened political instability and leadership doubts.
Keir Starmer faces leadership challenge amid Labour Party unrest
June 30 jumps to 32%6%
Labour MPs openly called for Starmer's resignation, with threats of leadership challenges and support for successors like Wes Streeting, increasing market uncertainty and YES pricing for Starmer's removal by June 30, 2026.
Keir Starmer hit by frontbench resignation as Labour rebels plot to defeat PM
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
Frontbench resignations and rebellion over welfare cuts intensified pressure on Starmer, signaling deep party divisions and weakening his leadership, contributing to market declines in short-term resignation odds.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
December 31 jumps to 74%5%
The resignation of Starmer's chief of staff, who advised on Mandelson's appointment, deepened the crisis and raised questions about Starmer's leadership and accountability, pushing market probabilities for his exit higher.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns from Cabinet amid Labour leadership turmoil
June 30 plunges to 22%17%
Wes Streeting's resignation from the Cabinet intensified the Labour Party's leadership crisis, reflecting internal dissent and weakening Starmer's position, which contributed to the decline in market prices for the June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
Joint UK‑Norway naval patrols announced to counter Russian submarines
June 30 surges to 67%27%
The defence agreement with Norway was portrayed as a strong security move, giving a modest boost to confidence in Starmer’s leadership for the June‑30 and May‑31 outcomes.
Wes Streeting challenges Keir Starmer for Labour leadership amid tensions
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting officially announced a leadership challenge against Starmer, reflecting internal party tensions and increasing market odds for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Starmer apologises to victims after Mandelson‑Epstein investigation expands
A new police investigation into Mandelson’s alleged leaks to Epstein revived the scandal, causing a sharp price jump for the “Yes” outcome as traders feared a leadership crisis.
Starmer apologizes to Epstein victims and faces calls to resign
May 31 dips to 21%4%
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson and faced mounting pressure from opposition and some Labour lawmakers, further eroding confidence in his leadership and impacting market prices for near-term departure outcomes.
Four junior ministers resign amid growing Labour rebellion against Starmer
December 31 rises to 70%2%
The resignations of junior ministers including Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting amid widespread calls from Labour MPs for Starmer to step down marked a peak in the leadership crisis, pushing market prices for his exit to near certainty by year-end.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting gears up to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership
May 31 plunges to 3%16%
Wes Streeting, Health Secretary, announced he was preparing to challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership on 12 May 2026. The move signalled a credible leadership coup, sending the market’s Yes probability for the “May 31” outcome sharply down from 19 % to 3 % as traders saw an imminent leadership battle rather than an outright removal.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping to deepen UK-China ties amid global turbulence
Starmer's visit to China and meeting with President Xi Jinping aimed to strengthen UK-China relations and secure economic benefits. While this diplomatic effort was significant, it had limited impact on the market's assessment of Starmer's tenure, with only minor price fluctuations.
Labour MP Clive Lewis urges Starmer to step down
May 31 surges to 57%38%
On 12 May 2026, leading Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly called for Starmer’s resignation, citing the party’s disastrous local election results. The declaration sparked a brief market rally for the “May 31” outcome (price jumped to 57 % before falling back to 5 % by the end of the month).
Starmer vows to continue after high-stakes cabinet meeting
Despite multiple resignations and calls for his resignation, Starmer declared his intention to remain in office after a critical cabinet meeting, temporarily stabilizing his position but not quelling dissent.
Starmer cabinet meeting shows leadership under threat but he refuses to resign
December 31 surges to 89%22%
Starmer's refusal to resign despite growing dissent and resignations from junior ministers highlighted the deepening crisis, causing market volatility and a spike in perceived likelihood of his departure by year-end.
Trump criticizes Starmer amid UK Labour leadership crisis
May 31 drops to 27%8%
US President Donald Trump publicly criticized Keir Starmer's energy policy, adding international scrutiny to the Labour leader during a period of internal party turmoil.
Jess Phillips resigns from Keir Starmer's government amid growing calls for PM's resignation
December 31 surges to 72%22%
Jess Phillips, safeguarding minister, resigned from the government, marking the second ministerial resignation in a day and signaling deepening instability within Starmer's administration, which pushed market prices higher for the December 31 outcome.
Close to 100 Labour MPs call for Starmer to resign or announce timetable
December 31 surges to 72%22%
A significant number of Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer's resignation or a clear timetable for his departure, increasing political pressure and market expectations of his exit.
Starmer announces teen social‑media ban options
May 19 jumps to 12%10%
Starmer’s statement that a ban on teenage social‑media use was “not off the table” sparked public debate and drove Yes prices for the May 19 outcome sharply upward.
Keir Starmer faces critical cabinet meeting amid calls to resign
December 31 dips to 71%2%
Starmer held a crucial cabinet meeting amid mounting resignations and calls for his resignation, including from four junior ministers, but declared his intention to remain in office, causing market uncertainty and a volatile price movement for the December 31 outcome.
Three ministerial resignations hit Keir Starmer's government, including Jess Phillips
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips and two others resigned, publicly calling for Starmer to step down. This wave of resignations intensified the leadership crisis, sharply reducing market confidence in Starmer's ability to remain PM through June and May deadlines.
Starmer’s approval spikes after successful UK‑Japan cybersecurity pact
December 31 drops to 74%7%
A high‑profile agreement with Japan on cybersecurity and critical minerals was portrayed as a diplomatic win, temporarily easing political pressure on Starmer and causing a brief price dip before the market resumed its upward trend.
Donald Trump criticizes Keir Starmer amid UK Labour leadership crisis
December 31 drops to 73%13%
US President Donald Trump publicly criticized Starmer's energy policy and leadership amid growing Labour turmoil, highlighting international attention and adding pressure on Starmer. This contributed to market declines in Starmer's tenure probabilities.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns and announces leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 73%11%
Wes Streeting resigned from the Cabinet and announced his intention to run for Labour leadership, signaling a formal challenge to Starmer's position amid growing party dissent.
Starmer defies calls to resign, vows to fight next general election
June 30 plunges to 30%37%
Despite mounting pressure and resignations, Starmer publicly refused to set a resignation timetable, signaling his intent to continue, which caused mixed market reactions across outcomes.
Keir Starmer vows to continue as PM despite mounting resignations and calls to quit
December 31 jumps to 69%6%
Starmer held a high-stakes cabinet meeting and declared his intention to remain in office, attempting to stabilize his leadership amid growing dissent, which temporarily bolstered market confidence in his tenure.
Starmer faces critical cabinet meeting amid calls to resign
December 31 surges to 89%22%
Amid a protracted period of instability and multiple ministerial resignations, Starmer met with cabinet members to assert control, but calls for his resignation intensified, impacting market prices significantly.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament, sparking party row
December 31 surges to 88%17%
Labour’s National Executive Committee, including Starmer, blocked popular Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election, fueling internal party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges.
Wes Streeting prepares to challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership
June 30 surges to 56%26%
Health Secretary Wes Streeting's preparation to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership amid party turmoil and poor election results increased market expectations of Starmer's removal by mid-2026.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
May 31 plunges to 25%29%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer's judgment, contributing to market volatility and a spike in the probability of Starmer leaving by May 31.
Starmer meets Chinese President Xi in Beijing
December 31 surges to 83%17%
Starmer’s high‑profile diplomatic trip to China was intended to boost economic prospects, temporarily lifting optimism for the longer‑term dates but not enough to reverse the overall downward trend.
Revelations of Mandelson's failed security vetting and police investigation intensify
May 31 surges to 54%35%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming ambassador, leading to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant and a criminal investigation. This scandal severely undermined Starmer's leadership and caused a sharp market reaction, especially for the May 31 outcome.
Starmer apologizes for Mandelson appointment amid mounting pressure
December 31 rises to 73%4%
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson as ambassador despite his Epstein ties, acknowledging the damage to trust and increasing calls for his resignation, which influenced market prices for later outcomes.
Labour suffers disastrous local elections, calls for Starmer to resign surge
December 31 jumps to 78%9%
Following poor election results, over 90 Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer's resignation, intensifying the leadership crisis and causing sharp market price swings, especially for short-term outcomes.
Starmer announces plan to ban teen social‑media use
May 31 rises to 23%4%
Starmer’s proposal to consider an Australia‑style ban on teenage social‑media access was viewed as a bold policy move, nudging the May‑31 price up from 19% to 23% as the market saw a potential distraction from leadership pressures.
Keir Starmer delivers speech to ward off Labour leadership contest after local election losses
June 30 surges to 55%23%
Following significant Labour losses in local elections, Starmer addressed the nation to rally support and prevent a leadership challenge. Despite this, calls for his resignation increased, pushing market prices higher for his exit by June 30, 2026.
Multiple junior ministers resign amid growing calls for Starmer to quit
May 31 surges to 56%37%
Several junior ministers resigned in protest against Starmer's leadership, escalating internal party rebellion and sharply increasing market expectations of his departure by May 31, 2026.
Polling shows Labour support at historic lows and Starmer's approval rating worst since 1977
December 31 surges to 79%29%
Polling data revealed Labour trailing and Starmer's personal approval at record lows, increasing market odds of his eventual resignation by year-end.
Labour suffers major losses in local elections, prompting calls for Starmer's resignation
June 30 surges to 55%23%
Labour lost control of multiple councils in May 2026 local elections, leading to over 40 MPs publicly calling for Starmer to resign, significantly boosting market odds for his departure by June 30, 2026.
Keir Starmer considers resignation amid Labour Party crisis
June 30 surges to 64%36%
Reports emerged that Starmer was considering resignation amid a political crisis within Labour, exacerbated by poor election results and cabinet resignations, leading to a surge in market pricing for his departure by June 30, 2026.
More than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to resign after poor local election results
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Following disappointing local election outcomes, over 70 Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer's resignation, reflecting deep party division and escalating pressure on his leadership, which caused significant market volatility and a sharp increase in the December 31 outcome probability.
Over 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign after failed leadership speech
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
After a speech intended to shore up his leadership, more than 70 Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer's resignation, reflecting a significant loss of party support and escalating the leadership crisis. This event contributed to a sharp decline in the May 31 outcome price.
Keir Starmer delivers make-or-break speech amid mounting resignation calls
December 31 surges to 86%19%
Following disastrous local election results, Starmer addressed the nation to quell demands for his resignation. Despite the speech, internal party dissent persisted, causing market fluctuations and uncertainty about his leadership duration.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
December 31 surges to 83%17%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying pressure on Starmer and causing a significant market price spike for the December 31 outcome.
Over 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to resign after poor local election results
December 31 surges to 69%19%
Following devastating local election losses, more than 70 Labour MPs, including senior cabinet ministers, publicly demanded Starmer's resignation, intensifying the leadership crisis and causing market uncertainty.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping, calls for deeper UK-China ties amid global turbulence
December 31 rises to 70%2%
Starmer's diplomatic efforts to strengthen UK-China relations aimed to boost economic prospects and stabilize his leadership image, contributing to a rise in the December 31 market outcome despite domestic challenges.
Labour blocks Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's bid for Parliament seat
Labour's National Executive Committee, including Starmer, blocked Burnham's candidacy, seen as a potential leadership challenger, reflecting internal party tensions and affecting market confidence in Starmer's stability, impacting May 19 and May 31 outcomes.
Labour chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson scandal
December 31 surges to 86%37%
The resignation of a key political ally and architect of Starmer's election campaign further weakened the Prime Minister's position and authority.
Over 70 Labour MPs and senior ministers call for Starmer's resignation after election losses
Following disastrous local election results, numerous Labour MPs and cabinet members publicly demanded Starmer resign or set a departure timetable, marking a leadership crisis.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
May 31 jumps to 29%10%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite his Epstein ties. This resignation highlighted internal turmoil and increased market concerns about Starmer's leadership stability, reflected in rising probabilities for his departure by May 31, 2026.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament, sparking internal party conflict
June 30 jumps to 30%7%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election fueled speculation of internal party strife and potential leadership challenges to Starmer, affecting market sentiment negatively for the June 30 outcome.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 surges to 86%20%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the controversial appointment of Mandelson, intensifying the political storm and raising doubts about Starmer’s leadership.
Starmer announces release of Mandelson appointment files
The government committed to publishing documents about Mandelson’s ambassadorship, a move seen as an attempt to contain the scandal but which underscored the depth of the issue, pushing odds lower.
Starmer proposes teenage social‑media ban, sparking public backlash
December 31 plunges to 49%35%
The Prime Minister’s suggestion to consider an Australia‑style ban on social‑media for under‑16s triggered criticism and concerns over civil liberties, causing a sharp drop in confidence in his leadership.
Labour suffers heavy losses in 2026 local elections amid rising Reform UK support
Labour lost over 1,200 council seats and more than 30 councils, while Reform UK made significant gains, reflecting public dissatisfaction with Starmer's leadership and increasing calls for his resignation.
Local elections deliver losses for Labour, Reform UK gains
June 30 plunges to 18%23%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, seen as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership, increasing speculation about a leadership challenge and contributing to market declines in the probability of Starmer staying through May and June.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections, Starmer refuses to quit
May 31 drops to 6%13%
Labour's poor performance in local and regional elections was seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership, with many calling for his resignation. Starmer's refusal to step down led to a drop in market prices for his departure by May 31 to 6%.
Labour suffers losses in local and regional elections, raising leadership doubts
May 31 drops to 5%14%
Labour’s poor performance in May elections, attributed to Starmer’s missteps and the Mandelson scandal, fueled speculation about a leadership challenge, causing a decline in the May 31 outcome price and pressure on Starmer’s tenure.
Labour suffers devastating local election losses, sparking calls for Starmer's resignation
December 31 surges to 70%20%
Labour's poor performance in local elections intensified pressure on Starmer, leading to multiple ministerial resignations and a surge in calls from MPs for his departure, sharply increasing market odds for his exit by year-end.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham's bid for Parliament, sparking internal party row
May 19 drops to 6%8%
The decision to block a popular rival's parliamentary bid fueled speculation of internal party conflict and leadership challenges to Starmer, reflecting growing instability within Labour ahead of local elections.
Labour Party suffers major losses in local and regional elections
June 30 drops to 39%6%
The poor performance in local elections was widely interpreted as a referendum on Starmer's leadership, fueling speculation about his potential resignation.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local and regional elections, Reform UK gains
December 31 jumps to 74%13%
Labour's poor performance in the May 7 elections was seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership amid ongoing scandals and economic difficulties. Despite pressure, Starmer refused to resign, but the results fueled speculation about a leadership challenge.
Starmer defends his position after election setbacks
Starmer publicly pledged to stay on despite the election defeats, but the statement failed to restore market confidence, contributing to a further price drop.
Labour suffers big losses in local elections, Reform UK gains
May 31 drops to 6%13%
Labour's poor performance in local and regional elections was seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership, leading to increased speculation about his future and a sharp drop in market prices for the May 31 outcome.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat, sparking party row
June 30 rises to 41%3%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary by-election fueled internal Labour Party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges to Starmer, influencing market uncertainty around his tenure.
Local elections deliver losses for Labour and wins for Reform UK
May 31 plunges to 4%15%
Labour suffered major losses in local and regional elections, with Starmer stating he would not resign despite the poor results. This triggered renewed discussion about potential leadership challenges.
Labour suffers big losses in local elections, Starmer refuses to quit
June 30 surges to 69%29%
Labour's poor performance in the May 7 local and regional elections, with significant losses and gains by Reform UK, intensified pressure on Starmer's leadership. Despite calls for resignation from within his party, Starmer insisted he would not step down, causing a moderate increase in the market probability for his departure by June 30, 2026.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections, Reform UK gains ground
May 15 plunges to 0%25%
The poor performance of Labour in the May 7 local elections, with significant gains by Reform UK, led to a sharp drop in market confidence for Starmer's short-term survival, especially for May 15 and May 19 outcomes.
Starmer meets with Japanese leaders on cybersecurity and critical minerals
During a stop in Tokyo, Starmer secured a cooperation deal with Japan on cybersecurity and critical minerals, signalling a proactive foreign‑policy agenda that briefly lifted confidence in his tenure.
Local and regional elections deliver heavy losses for Labour
The May 5 local elections saw Labour lose more than half the seats it defended, a blow interpreted as a de‑facto referendum on Starmer’s leadership, further depressing market confidence.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson‑Epstein scandal
Morgan McSweeney quit as Starmer’s chief of staff after the fallout from Peter Mandelson’s appointment as U.S. ambassador, intensifying scrutiny of Starmer’s judgment and pushing market odds lower.
Starmer leads UK delegation to China to forge strategic partnership
December 31 surges to 84%18%
Starmer’s high‑profile visit to Beijing, aimed at deepening trade and diplomatic ties, was interpreted as a bold foreign‑policy gamble that lifted market expectations of his staying in office through year‑end.
Wes Streeting announces leadership challenge against Keir Starmer
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting's official challenge to Starmer's leadership highlighted internal party tensions and increased market expectations for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Starmer faces accusations of misleading Parliament over Mandelson vetting
December 31 rises to 69%2%
Starmer was accused of misleading Parliament about Mandelson’s security clearance, further damaging his credibility and increasing market expectations of his potential departure by year-end.
Labour blocks Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat amid leadership tensions
December 31 rises to 66%1%
The Labour Party, including Starmer, blocked popular mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary by-election, fueling speculation about internal party rivalries and leadership challenges, impacting market sentiment for Starmer’s tenure through December 31.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 rises to 69%3%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political crisis and fueling speculation about Starmer’s vulnerability, impacting market prices.
Keir Starmer 'Broke Ministerial Code' After Palantir Meeting
December 31 rises to 74%4%
Starmer was accused of failing to disclose a February 2025 visit to Palantir's Washington offices with Mandelson, a breach generally considered grounds for resignation. This added another layer of scandal to his premiership.
Keir Starmer accused of breaching ministerial code over undisclosed Palantir visit
December 31 dips to 52%4%
Starmer faced allegations of violating the ministerial code after failing to disclose a visit to Palantir's Washington office, linked to Peter Mandelson. This scandal further undermined his credibility and leadership, impacting market confidence in his tenure.
Starmer announces UK‑Norway joint naval patrols to protect undersea cables
The AP story on joint UK‑Norway naval operations was viewed as a strong security move, lifting the December‑31 contract again after a brief dip in April.
Starmer accused of breaching ministerial code over undisclosed Palantir visit with Mandelson
Starmer faced allegations of breaking the ministerial code after failing to disclose a February 2025 visit to Palantir's Washington office with Mandelson, a client of Mandelson's lobbying firm. This raised further questions about Starmer's transparency and integrity, impacting market sentiment negatively for his tenure.
Starmer faces allegations of ministerial code breach over undisclosed Palantir visit
Starmer was accused of breaking the ministerial code by failing to disclose a visit to Palantir's Washington office with Mandelson, further damaging his credibility and contributing to market confidence in his eventual departure by December 31.
UK and Norway sign joint naval patrol agreement
December 31 rises to 69%1%
The defense pact was portrayed as a strong foreign‑policy win for Starmer, briefly lifting the December‑31 price from 68% to 69% as market sentiment improved.
UK and Norway launch joint naval patrols to protect undersea cables
December 31 jumps to 68%7%
The defence cooperation was interpreted as a strong security move by Starmer, nudging the December‑31 outcome upward as confidence in his leadership rose.
UK and Norway agree joint naval patrols amid rising Russian threats
Starmer’s government announced joint naval patrols with Norway to protect undersea cables and counter Russian submarines, demonstrating leadership on national security but with limited direct impact on Starmer’s political survival market.
UK and Norway agree joint naval patrols amid rising Russian threats
December 31 jumps to 70%14%
Starmer’s government announced joint naval patrols with Norway to protect undersea cables and counter Russian submarines, demonstrating leadership on national security and slightly bolstering market confidence in his tenure.
Local elections deliver losses for Labour, raising Starmer’s leadership doubts
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, seen as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership. Despite calls for resignation, Starmer refused to quit, causing market fluctuations reflecting uncertainty about his future.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping to deepen UK-China ties amid global turbulence
December 31 surges to 67%15%
Starmer’s visit to China and meeting with President Xi Jinping aimed to improve diplomatic and economic relations, signaling a strategic partnership. While positive for Starmer’s international standing, it had limited impact on his domestic leadership market.
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies on Mandelson vetting pressure
Robbins testified that Downing Street pressured him to clear Mandelson despite security concerns, undermining Starmer's defense and increasing political pressure.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping in Beijing, pledges deeper UK‑China partnership
June 30 rises to 45%3%
The high‑profile diplomatic trip was seen as a boost to Starmer’s economic agenda, lifting the June‑30 and December‑31 outcomes as investors perceived reduced political risk.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping in Beijing, pledges deeper UK‑China partnership
The same visit also raised the May‑19 outcome modestly as the market viewed the foreign‑policy success as a sign of Starmer’s continued authority.
Keir Starmer faces calls to resign after Labour's local election losses
June 30 surges to 55%23%
Following substantial losses in early May 2026 local elections, over 40 Labour MPs and some cabinet members publicly called for Starmer's resignation or a clear leadership timetable, increasing market expectations for his departure by June 30, 2026.
Starmer faces critical 48 hours amid growing outrage over Mandelson vetting
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Starmer was set to be questioned in the Commons about the Mandelson vetting scandal, with sacked permanent secretary Olly Robbins to testify. A leaked WhatsApp exchange suggested Downing Street knew of vetting concerns earlier than claimed, raising questions about whether Starmer misled Parliament and increasing resignation pressure.
Starmer dismisses Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting crisis
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Starmer sacked Olly Robbins following the vetting scandal, intensifying scrutiny on his leadership and impacting market confidence.
Starmer faces Commons showdown over Mandelson vetting scandal
Starmer faced intense questioning in Parliament over misleading claims about Mandelson's vetting, with opposition and some Labour MPs demanding his resignation, further destabilizing his premiership.
Starmer faces Commons questioning amid Mandelson vetting controversy
December 31 drops to 64%6%
Keir Starmer faced parliamentary questioning over the Mandelson vetting scandal, with opposition leaders accusing him of misleading Parliament and demanding his resignation.
Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer's resignation amid Mandelson fallout
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Following the Mandelson scandal and related resignations, senior Labour figures including Anas Sarwar publicly called for Starmer to step down, increasing political pressure and contributing to market price rises for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer admits mistake in appointing Mandelson after vetting warning
December 31 jumps to 75%6%
Starmer publicly admitted on 20 Apr 2026 that he should not have appointed Mandelson as ambassador after learning the security‑vetting agency had warned against it. The admission reignited calls for his resignation and pushed the “December 31” Yes probability back up to the high‑70s.
UK‑Norway joint naval patrols announced amid Russian submarine activity
The defence partnership was presented as a strong security move but also underscored heightened threat levels, keeping pressure on Starmer’s leadership credibility.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson scandal
June 30 jumps to 52%7%
The resignation of Starmer’s chief of staff, who had advised the Mandelson appointment, intensified leadership doubts and pushed Yes prices for the June 30 outcome higher.
Foreign Office Permanent Secretary Sir Olly Robbins dismissed amid Mandelson vetting crisis
Starmer sacked Sir Olly Robbins after it emerged Robbins' department overruled security vetting to grant Mandelson clearance, intensifying the political crisis and calls for Starmer's resignation.
Revelations confirm Mandelson failed security vetting but Foreign Office overruled
December 31 jumps to 63%7%
Reports confirmed that Peter Mandelson failed his security vetting in January 2025, but the Foreign Office overruled the vetting agency's advice to allow his appointment. Starmer sacked Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins and faced accusations of misleading Parliament, intensifying calls for his resignation and driving up the December 31 outcome price.
Revelation that Mandelson failed security vetting but Foreign Office overruled
December 31 jumps to 68%12%
Reports confirmed Mandelson failed security vetting but was appointed anyway, with the Foreign Office overriding the vetting agency, causing a political crisis and calls for Starmer's resignation.
Starmer dismisses Foreign Office permanent secretary amid Mandelson vetting crisis
December 31 surges to 66%20%
Starmer's firing of Sir Olly Robbins over the Foreign Office's overruling of security vetting for Mandelson escalated the scandal, leading to calls for his resignation and impacting market prices significantly.
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting crisis
December 31 jumps to 64%11%
Following the revelation of the vetting override, Starmer dismissed Sir Olly Robbins, the Foreign Office permanent secretary, signaling a serious political fallout and loss of confidence in his administration.
Starmer announces consideration of teen social‑media ban, sparking public debate
December 31 jumps to 69%9%
Starmer’s proposal to potentially ban social‑media access for under‑16s was seen as a bold policy move that divided opinion and added to political pressure, nudging the market further toward a ‘Yes’ outcome.
Report reveals Foreign Office overruled security vetting for Mandelson
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
A report confirmed the Foreign Office overruled the UK Security Vetting division's denial of Mandelson's clearance, deepening the scandal and leading to the dismissal of Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins, increasing calls for Starmer's resignation.
Mandelson security vetting scandal: Foreign Office overruled UKSV decision
December 31 jumps to 70%10%
The Foreign Office overruled UK Security Vetting's denial of Peter Mandelson's security clearance, a highly unusual move that intensified scrutiny over Starmer's leadership and potential misleading of Parliament.
Starmer proposes teen social‑media ban, sparking public debate
Starmer announced that a ban on social‑media use for under‑16s was being considered, echoing Australia’s policy. The proposal was controversial and seen as a distraction from governance, causing a dip in the December‑31 price.
UK and Norway agree joint naval patrols amid rising Russian threats
December 31 surges to 68%16%
Starmer’s government announced joint naval patrols with Norway to protect undersea cables and counter Russian submarines, demonstrating leadership on security but with limited direct impact on his political standing.
Starmer faces backlash over teen social‑media ban proposal
Starmer’s suggestion to consider an Australia‑style ban on under‑16 social‑media use sparked debate about civil liberties, adding to political fatigue and nudging the market upward.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping, announces deeper UK‑China ties
The high‑profile meeting produced trade deals but also revived criticism that Starmer is too close to China, sustaining market pressure on his tenure.
Starmer visits China, seeks to deepen UK-China strategic partnership
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Starmer's visit to China and meeting with President Xi Jinping aimed to improve diplomatic and economic ties amid global turbulence. While it showcased Starmer's international engagement, it had limited effect on his domestic political challenges.
Keir Starmer considers resignation amid Labour Party crisis
June 30 surges to 64%36%
Reports surfaced that Keir Starmer was contemplating resignation due to a political crisis within the Labour Party following poor local election results and internal divisions. This news increased market expectations for his resignation by June 30, 2026, reflecting heightened instability in the government.
UK government agrees to release documents on Mandelson’s ambassador appointment
December 31 rises to 71%4%
The government agreed to release documents related to Mandelson’s appointment to address mounting anger and opposition demands, keeping the scandal in public focus and maintaining pressure on Starmer.
Starmer defends UK stance on Arctic security amid US‑China tensions
AP covered Starmer’s comments on Arctic security, reinforcing his image as a steady leader and contributing to a modest rise in the December‑31 contract.
Starmer visits Palantir's Washington HQ with Lord Mandelson, breaching ministerial code
December 31 rises to 64%3%
Starmer's undisclosed visit to Palantir's offices with Mandelson, a client of Mandelson's lobbying firm, raised allegations of ministerial code breaches, undermining his credibility and increasing market doubts about his tenure.
Labour suffers losses in local elections, Starmer refuses to quit
December 31 jumps to 60%6%
Labour's poor performance in local and regional elections was seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership, with significant losses and gains by Reform UK, increasing pressure on Starmer but he vowed to stay, affecting market confidence.
Labour faces special election loss in Greater Manchester, raising leadership concerns
June 30 drops to 43%7%
The anticipated loss in a Greater Manchester special election intensified speculation about Starmer's leadership future, contributing to a decline in market confidence for his continuation through mid-2026.
Peter Mandelson arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office
December 31 surges to 73%22%
Following the release of Epstein-related documents, British police arrested Mandelson, intensifying the scandal and increasing pressure on Starmer, which caused a sharp rise in the December 31 market price.
Starmer vows not to quit after local elections deliver losses for Labour
May 31 jumps to 31%12%
Following poor local and regional election results in May 2026, Starmer insisted he would not resign despite significant losses for Labour and gains for Reform UK. This tempered market expectations for an immediate departure, causing some price volatility especially for the May 31 and May 19 outcomes.
Peter Mandelson arrested amid Epstein scandal, intensifying pressure on Starmer
December 31 surges to 73%21%
The arrest of Mandelson, Starmer's appointee and Epstein associate, escalated the political crisis, severely undermining Starmer's judgment and increasing calls for his resignation, causing market volatility.
UK police arrest Peter Mandelson over alleged misconduct linked to Epstein
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation and arrested Mandelson on suspicion of misconduct in public office related to his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. This intensified the political crisis for Starmer, undermining his leadership and increasing calls for his resignation.
Peter Mandelson arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office
December 31 rises to 63%2%
British police arrested Mandelson amid allegations he shared sensitive government information with Epstein, intensifying the scandal and increasing pressure on Starmer's leadership, reflected in market price volatility.
Starmer apologises for Mandelson appointment, vows transparency
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson and promised to release related documents, attempting to calm party unrest. The apology was enough to halt the price surge, causing a modest pull‑back.
Keir Starmer reverses plan to delay local elections in England
December 31 surges to 71%15%
Starmer's U-turn on delaying local elections damaged his credibility and worsened internal party dissatisfaction, accelerating speculation about his potential resignation and impacting market prices for his departure by year-end.
Starmer cancels plan to delay local elections amid legal challenge
May 31 jumps to 41%13%
Starmer reversed his decision to delay local elections in 30 councils after a legal challenge from Reform UK, highlighting his policy instability and contributing to declining approval ratings.
Labour think tank funded smear campaign against journalists investigating party funding
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Revelations that Labour Together funded a smear campaign against journalists investigating undeclared donations added to negative media coverage and internal party tensions affecting Starmer's standing.
Labour think tank linked to Starmer funds smear campaign against journalists
Labour Together, associated with Starmer allies, funded a campaign to discredit journalists investigating party funding, intensifying negative media coverage and political pressure on Starmer, affecting market sentiment on his tenure.
Starmer’s chief of staff quits, citing Mandelson scandal
A second senior aide, Morgan McSweeney, stepped down, reinforcing the narrative of a collapsing inner circle and pushing the market sharply toward a “Yes” outcome.
Mandelson investigation opened, Starmer apologises
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
Metropolitan Police opened a criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson’s alleged leaks to Epstein, and Starmer publicly apologized, causing a sharp rise in Yes prices for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer announces joint UK‑Norway naval patrols to protect undersea cables
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
A defence agreement with Norway to hunt Russian submarines and safeguard critical infrastructure was presented as a strong security move, boosting confidence in Starmer’s leadership.
Peter Mandelson fired as UK ambassador amid Epstein scandal
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
The firing of Mandelson, a controversial figure appointed by Starmer, amid revelations of his relationship with Epstein and security vetting failures, intensified calls for Starmer's resignation and destabilized his government.
Starmer defuses leadership crisis after Mandelson scandal but doubts linger
December 31 jumps to 64%11%
Starmer managed to survive a leadership challenge in February 2026 following the Mandelson appointment fallout, stabilizing the December 31 outcome price temporarily, though skepticism about his leadership remained.
Starmer defuses leadership crisis amid Mandelson fallout
December 31 surges to 71%17%
Starmer managed to fend off calls for resignation after the Mandelson appointment controversy, stabilizing his position temporarily and causing a peak in the December 31 outcome price to 71%.
Starmer faces furious Labour MPs after McSweeney resignation as he battles to save premiership
Starmer faced intense pressure from Labour MPs following the resignation of his Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney, highlighting internal party dissent and weakening his leadership position, which influenced market odds for his resignation by December 31.
Starmer secures UK‑US trade deal reducing tariffs on key industries
AP reported a trade agreement with the United States that was seen as a major economic win for Starmer, driving the December‑31 contract to a new high in early February.
Director of Communications Tim Allan resigns amid Mandelson scandal
Tim Allan resigned shortly after McSweeney, signaling deep turmoil in Starmer's administration and intensifying market doubts about Starmer's tenure.
Keir Starmer faces mutinous MPs after McSweeney resignation over Mandelson scandal
May 31 jumps to 32%13%
Morgan McSweeney resigned as chief of staff over his role in appointing Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as US ambassador despite vetting concerns. This triggered internal Labour dissent and intensified pressure on Starmer.
Starmer faces parliamentary pressure after police open Mandelson investigation
Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into former ambassador Peter Mandelson over alleged leaks to Jeffrey Epstein. The development revived questions about Starmer’s judgment and raised the risk of a leadership challenge, pushing the December‑31 price sharply upward.
Ipsos poll records Starmer’s net approval at –46 in February 2026
December 31 jumps to 68%7%
An Ipsos poll released on 9 February 2026 showed Starmer’s net approval at a historic low of –46, triggering a sudden surge in the “December 31” market (price rose from 61 % to 68 % that day). The market interpreted the deepening unpopularity as a sign that a resignation could be imminent before year‑end.
Calls for Starmer to step down amid Mandelson-Epstein scandal
June 30 drops to 40%10%
Following revelations about Peter Mandelson’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer faced intensified calls to resign, creating a leadership crisis that affected market confidence in his tenure lasting through mid-2026.
Revelation that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
December 31 surges to 73%21%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security vetting before taking the ambassador post in early 2025, contradicting Starmer's claim of full due process. This led to a sharp rise in market prices for Starmer's departure by December 31 and June 30, reflecting increased risk to his leadership.
Starmer rejects calls to resign amid Labour turmoil
Following the resignation of close adviser Morgan McSweeney and growing internal party dissent, Starmer publicly declared he was not prepared to step down, temporarily stabilizing his position.
Starmer releases documents on Mandelson’s vetting process
December 31 drops to 62%8%
Starmer’s promise to publish vetting files was seen as an attempt to contain the scandal, but the partial release further eroded confidence, contributing to a dip from 70% to 62% on February 13.
Starmer condemns Russian GRU cyber‑attack, announces sanctions
A strong stance against Russia, including sanctions on alleged GRU officers, was intended to showcase leadership but also highlighted security challenges, marginally increasing resignation risk perception.
Keir Starmer’s director of communications and top aide resign amid scandal
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Starmer's director of communications Tim Allan and top aide McSweeney resigned following revelations related to Peter Mandelson, intensifying pressure on Starmer's leadership and increasing market uncertainty about his tenure.
Communications Director Tim Allan resigns amid Mandelson scandal
Tim Allan resigned shortly after McSweeney, reflecting escalating pressure on Starmer's administration and contributing to market uncertainty about Starmer's survival, influencing the December 31 outcome price upward.
Starmer’s chief of staff and communications director quit amid Mandelson fallout
June 30 drops to 28%7%
Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned on 8 Feb 2026, followed by communications director Tim Allan on 9 Feb 2026, after the Mandelson‑veting controversy. The resignations amplified internal turmoil and caused the market’s Yes probability for the “June 30” outcome to dip from 35 % to the low‑20 % range as traders bet the government was losing cohesion.
Starmer's Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson appointment
Morgan McSweeney resigned as Starmer's Chief of Staff, taking responsibility for advising the appointment of Mandelson despite the vetting issues. This resignation highlighted internal turmoil and weakened Starmer's position.
Starmer's Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson appointment
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking full responsibility for advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite his Epstein ties, escalating pressure on Starmer and causing market shifts.
Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson appointment
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking full responsibility for advising Mandelson's appointment despite his Epstein ties, signaling internal turmoil and weakening Starmer's position, which contributed to increased market odds for Starmer's exit by December 31.
Metropolitan Police confirm searches related to Mandelson scandal amid calls for Starmer resignation
Police searches in Wiltshire and Camden related to the Mandelson scandal intensified scrutiny on Starmer, with former Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman warning Starmer risks being toppled unless he takes action. This increased market perception of Starmer's vulnerability, pushing resignation odds higher for the December 31 outcome.
Peter Mandelson resigns as UK Ambassador amid Epstein scandal
Peter Mandelson resigned following revelations of his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, triggering a major political scandal that undermined Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership and led to calls for his resignation.
UK police launch criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson over Epstein leaks
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
The launch of a formal police probe heightened pressure on Starmer, coinciding with a jump in the December‑31 price from 62% to 70% as traders priced in a possible leadership crisis.
Starmer admits Mandelson lied during vetting, announces removal from Privy Council
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Starmer publicly acknowledged Peter Mandelson's dishonesty during security vetting and announced his removal from the Privy Council, intensifying scrutiny on Starmer's leadership and triggering resignations within his team.
Starmer admits Mandelson lied about Epstein ties and faces calls to resign
During Prime Minister's Questions, Starmer stated that Peter Mandelson had lied repeatedly about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, leading to increased scrutiny and calls for Starmer's resignation. This event marked a significant escalation in the scandal, impacting market sentiment on Starmer's tenure.
Starmer's Chief of Staff and Communications Director resign amid Mandelson scandal
December 31 jumps to 63%12%
The resignations of Morgan McSweeney and Tim Allan within 24 hours amid the Mandelson vetting crisis intensified pressure on Starmer, leading to a sharp increase in the probability of his departure by December 31, 2025.
Starmer claims Mandelson passed security vetting despite evidence to contrary
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
At a press conference, Starmer stated that Mandelson had cleared security vetting, contradicting reports that he failed. This misstatement intensified calls for Starmer's resignation and led to a spike in resignation odds, pushing the December 31 outcome price higher.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson‑Epstein revelations
May 31 jumps to 26%7%
The same resignation also caused a dramatic swing in the May‑31 outcome as traders priced in a higher risk of an imminent resignation.
Police open criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson over alleged Epstein leaks
December 31 jumps to 68%7%
The launch of a police investigation into Mandelson’s alleged misconduct heightened pressure on Starmer, who had appointed him, leading to a sharp price jump as traders priced in a higher risk of his resignation.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson‑Epstein revelations
June 30 surges to 48%26%
Morgan McSweeney quit, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment; the resignation intensified scrutiny of Starmer’s judgment and drove the June‑30 and May‑31 outcomes sharply upward.
Starmer defuses leadership crisis over Mandelson appointment
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
Starmer managed to quell immediate leadership challenges after some Labour lawmakers called for his resignation over the Mandelson scandal, stabilizing market prices temporarily for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer rallies cabinet support amid leadership crisis over Mandelson scandal
December 31 rises to 52%4%
Senior Cabinet ministers publicly backed Starmer despite the ongoing Mandelson scandal and leadership challenges, stabilizing market confidence somewhat for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer announces China visit amid US‑UK tensions
May 31 jumps to 27%8%
Starmer’s planned trip to China to seek a strategic partnership was announced, raising hopes for economic gains but also sparking criticism from US allies, nudging Yes prices for the May 31 outcome upward.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment scandal
June 30 surges to 57%29%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein triggered a political crisis for Starmer, with calls for his resignation and cabinet ministers rallying around him. This event caused a sharp increase in the market's probability for Starmer leaving by June 30 and December 31.
Starmer announces new UK‑Japan cybersecurity and critical minerals pact
The AP article on the UK‑Japan agreement highlighted Starmer’s active foreign policy, which helped push the December‑31 contract back up toward its peak.
Release of Epstein files reveals Mandelson’s continued ties and alleged misconduct
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
The U.S. Justice Department released millions of Epstein-related documents showing Mandelson’s ongoing relationship with Epstein and possible sharing of sensitive government information, leading to police investigations and further damaging Starmer’s standing, pushing December 31 outcome prices higher.
Starmer and Xi Jinping call for deeper UK-China ties amid global turbulence
Starmer's diplomatic engagement with China aimed to boost economic growth and stability, which helped moderate negative market sentiment but did not significantly alter leadership risk perceptions.
UK police open criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson over alleged leaks to Epstein
December 31 rises to 56%3%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into Mandelson for misconduct in public office related to sharing sensitive information with Epstein, escalating the scandal and increasing pressure on Starmer's leadership through December 31, 2025.
Starmer heads to China for strategic partnership talks
The prime minister’s four‑day visit to Beijing was framed as an economic boost but drew criticism at home, creating uncertainty about his foreign‑policy stance and nudging the market higher.
Political analyst predicts Keir Starmer will be gone by mid-2026 after poor public support
December 31 jumps to 63%6%
Public pessimism and expert predictions about Starmer's leadership longevity contributed to market price increases for his departure by year-end 2025 and beyond.
Labour MPs debate Starmer’s future amid internal party unrest
December 31 rises to 60%1%
As the year ended, Labour MPs were actively discussing whether Starmer should remain leader, reflecting ongoing instability and uncertainty that influenced market expectations for his tenure through December 31, 2025.
Starmer’s approval sinks below –40 in latest polls
December 31 jumps to 71%8%
PollBludger reported on 27 December 2025 that recent YouGov and Ipsos surveys placed Starmer’s net approval below –40, with a record –61 in one poll. This negative shock buoyed the “December 31” market again, pushing the implied Yes‑probability to a new high of 71 % by early 2026.
Starmer announces investigation into Mandelson‑Epstein files
Starmer pledged to release government emails related to Mandelson’s vetting, signalling a possible accountability process that heightened speculation about his political survival.
Keir Starmer publicly rebukes Wes Streeting over EU customs union comments
December 31 jumps to 63%7%
Starmer's public rejection of Streeting's pro-EU customs union stance highlighted factional divisions within Labour, signaling ongoing leadership challenges and party instability.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment advice
December 31 rises to 57%1%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the prime minister to appoint Mandelson, adding to the scandal and leadership crisis.
UK police open criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson
December 31 jumps to 73%11%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson for potential misconduct in public office related to his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, significantly increasing pressure on Starmer.
Starmer defuses Mandelson‑veting controversy in Parliament
December 31 jumps to 59%6%
Starmer answered parliamentary questions about the Mandelson vetting process, claiming ignorance of Epstein ties, which temporarily steadied market sentiment after earlier turmoil.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson‑Epstein controversy
Morgan McSweeney quit, citing the Mandelson appointment as a mistake, intensifying internal pressure on Starmer and causing a noticeable uptick in the market’s “Yes” price.
Starmer faces parliamentary backlash over Mandelson ambassador appointment
December 31 rises to 61%4%
After the Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting, Starmer’s handling of the appointment sparked calls for his resignation, pushing the December‑31 option up from 57% to 61%.
Starmer’s government announces strategic partnership with China
Starmer’s visit to Beijing and the signing of a strategic partnership were framed as a boost to the UK economy. Traders viewed the diplomatic win as a sign of political stability, nudging the December‑31 probability higher.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
December 31 dips to 57%3%
Starmer admitted he had 'believed Mandelson's lies' about his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, further damaging his credibility and triggering a market reaction.
UK government agrees to release documents on Mandelson's ambassador appointment
December 31 jumps to 61%7%
The UK government promised to release emails and documents related to Mandelson's appointment, aiming to quell anger but also fueling further scrutiny of Starmer's judgment, affecting market sentiment for the December 31 outcome.
Local elections deliver heavy losses for Labour
June 30 jumps to 42%7%
The bruising local and regional elections saw Labour lose more than half the seats it defended, intensifying speculation about Starmer’s tenure and lifting Yes prices for the June 30 outcome.
Starmer meets with European leaders amid ongoing political pressure
December 31 rises to 60%3%
Starmer's engagement with European leaders highlighted his efforts to maintain international standing despite domestic turmoil, but did not significantly improve market confidence in his near-term tenure.
Starmer meets with Ukraine and European leaders amid ongoing crises
December 31 rises to 60%2%
Starmer met with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and European leaders, highlighting his role in international diplomacy. However, this did not alleviate domestic political pressures from the Mandelson scandal and economic challenges.
Starmer meets US President Trump to discuss NATO and Greenland
AP reported a high‑profile meeting between Starmer and Trump, which temporarily raised concerns about UK‑US relations and caused a short‑term dip in the December‑31 contract.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson as ambassador despite Epstein ties, intensifying pressure on Starmer and fueling market uncertainty about his tenure, pushing December 31 outcome prices higher.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping to seek thaw in UK-China relations
December 31 rises to 57%4%
Starmer's visit to China aimed to boost the UK economy and improve diplomatic ties, but also highlighted tensions with the US and internal party concerns, impacting perceptions of his leadership stability.
Starmer meets President Xi in Beijing, seeking economic boost
December 31 rises to 57%4%
Starmer’s high‑profile visit to China was framed as a bid to revive the UK economy, but domestic critics warned the trip could backfire politically, causing a modest rise in the market’s expectation of his removal.
Starmer faces parliamentary showdown after Mandelson appointment scandal erupts
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Senior ministers rallied behind Starmer as MPs demanded answers over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador despite failed security vetting, raising doubts about Starmer’s leadership and pushing the December‑31 outcome higher.
CNN poll: Starmer the most unpopular UK prime minister in history
December 31 jumps to 63%6%
A CNN poll released on 30 Nov 2025 showed Starmer as the most unpopular UK prime minister on record (approval 13 %). The poll’s release coincided with a price surge for the “December 31” outcome, pushing the Yes probability up to 63 % as market participants perceived a rising risk of removal.
Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves announce autumn budget with tax increases
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
The government unveiled a budget expected to break Labour’s election pledge by raising income taxes, intensifying political pressure on Starmer and fueling speculation about his leadership's longevity.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein ambassador appointment
December 31 jumps to 61%8%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson as ambassador despite Epstein ties, escalating the political storm and further undermining Starmer's leadership, impacting the December 31 market outcome.
Labour faces internal strife as Wes Streeting and others accused of plotting against Starmer
June 30 drops to 36%8%
Reports of Health Secretary Wes Streeting's leadership ambitions and internal plotting intensified the leadership crisis, undermining Starmer's authority and affecting market prices negatively for short-term outcomes.
Keir Starmer publicly criticizes Nigel Farage over racism allegations
December 31 drops to 54%5%
Starmer's public condemnation of Nigel Farage for alleged racist and antisemitic comments heightened political tensions and media scrutiny, contributing to perceptions of instability in Starmer's leadership. This event coincided with market fluctuations in late November 2025.
Starmer's Mandelson appointment under fire as opposition demands resignation
June 30 plunges to 24%19%
Local and regional election results showed Labour losing over half its seats, with the hard-right Reform UK making major gains. This triggered widespread calls for Starmer to step down and increased pressure on his leadership.
Starmer apologises for Mandelson‑Epstein revelations, promises investigation
Starmer’s public apology and the launch of a police investigation into Mandelson were covered by AP, causing a brief dip in the December‑31 contract before it recovered later in the window.
Critics say Starmer’s leadership lacks clear purpose amid ongoing crises
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Commentators and party insiders described Starmer’s leadership as directionless and ineffective, with growing disenchantment within Labour, which kept market sentiment fragile but did not trigger immediate price collapse for December 31.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
December 31 jumps to 58%7%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer's leadership stability through December 31, 2025.
Parliamentary allies rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson‑Epstein scandal
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, appointed ambassador to the U.S., had undisclosed ties to Jeffrey Epstein, intensifying scrutiny of Starmer’s judgment and nudging the market upward.
Clive Lewis publicly calls for Keir Starmer's resignation amid leadership unrest
June 30 jumps to 44%13%
Clive Lewis became the first Labour MP to publicly call for Starmer's resignation following reports of plans to replace him after the November 2025 budget, signaling growing leadership challenges and impacting market confidence in Starmer's tenure through June 30.
Reports emerge of plot to depose Starmer after November budget
December 31 rises to 56%2%
Media reports indicated plans to replace Starmer with Wes Streeting after the November 2025 budget, increasing market speculation about Starmer's potential exit and raising prices for the December 31 outcome.
Labour lawmakers call for new leadership following Mandelson scandal
June 30 rises to 38%4%
Following the poor election results and ongoing controversy over the Mandelson appointment, several Labour lawmakers publicly questioned Starmer's leadership and called for a change.
Starmer addresses leadership plot rumors, condemns attacks on cabinet members
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Keir Starmer publicly rejected negative briefings against his cabinet and asserted he would fight any leadership challenge, attempting to quell unrest and reassure markets ahead of the budget announcement.
Starmer denies authorizing negative briefings amid leadership plot rumors
June 30 drops to 28%5%
Facing rumors of a plot within his party to oust him, Starmer publicly denied authorizing negative briefings against rivals, reflecting internal party strife and contributing to a decline in confidence for the June 30 outcome.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting denies plotting to oust Starmer amid government crisis
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Wes Streeting publicly denied rumors of plotting against Starmer, but the government faced a crisis with speculation about leadership challenges intensifying just weeks before the budget, impacting market perceptions of Starmer's stability.
Mandelson fails security vetting as Starmer leadership crisis deepens
December 31 jumps to 35%7%
The Guardian revealed Peter Mandelson failed security vetting for the U.S. ambassador post, triggering a major scandal that undermined Starmer's judgment and led to the Foreign Office chief's resignation. This caused significant price swings across all outcomes.
Keir Starmer's allies brief journalists on readiness to face leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Downing Street's briefing that Starmer was prepared to fight a leadership challenge marked a public acknowledgment of internal party tensions, contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Senior Cabinet ministers rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson security vetting scandal
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Starmer received public support from senior ministers after revelations that Mandelson failed security checks but was appointed ambassador, temporarily stabilizing his position and affecting market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political storm and raising doubts about Starmer's leadership, contributing to market uncertainty for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer faces calls to resign after local elections deliver losses for Labour
June 30 drops to 23%10%
Labour suffered significant losses in local elections, seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership amid ongoing scandals and economic struggles. Despite pressure, Starmer refused to resign, impacting market confidence negatively for the June 30 outcome.
UK leader’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment amid Epstein scandal
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite Epstein ties, intensifying pressure on Starmer's leadership and causing market shifts for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment scandal
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein sparked a political crisis for Starmer, with calls for his resignation and internal party dissent. This caused a significant rise in the December 31 outcome price as the risk of Starmer leaving increased.
Labour Party suffers major losses in local and regional elections
December 31 drops to 44%6%
The governing Labour Party experienced significant losses in local and regional elections, which were widely viewed as a referendum on Starmer's leadership and his handling of the Mandelson scandal.
Allies rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson‑Epstein controversy
Senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after the revelation that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, had been appointed ambassador to the United States despite failing security vetting. The show of party unity temporarily halted the market’s slide.
Starmer aides warn against leadership challenge ahead of autumn budget
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Senior aides to Keir Starmer publicly described any attempt to remove him before the November 26 budget as "reckless" and "dangerous," aiming to deter internal party plots and stabilize market confidence ahead of a critical fiscal announcement.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns amid leadership crisis
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Wes Streeting resigned from the cabinet, citing lost confidence in Starmer's leadership and signaling a serious leadership challenge, which caused market prices for Starmer's departure to rise.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson appointment sparks leadership doubts
Cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after the revelation that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, was appointed ambassador to the U.S. despite failing security vetting, raising questions about Starmer’s judgment and prompting a price rise for a resignation outcome.
Revelations emerge that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
December 31 surges to 74%30%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security checks before becoming UK ambassador to the US, raising questions about Starmer's judgment and triggering political fallout. This news caused a sharp increase in market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure through December 31, 2025.
Starmer faces parliamentary revolt over Mandelson appointment
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Senior ministers publicly backed Starmer as opposition lawmakers demanded his resignation over the appointment of Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, to the U.S. ambassadorship, pushing Yes prices higher for the December 31 outcome.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein appointment sparks leadership crisis
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Senior ministers publicly defended Starmer after the revelation that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, was appointed ambassador to the U.S. despite failed security vetting, intensifying pressure for a leadership challenge.
UK Prime Minister’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 jumps to 60%6%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political storm and raising doubts about Starmer's leadership, which pushed market prices higher for Starmer's exit by December 31.
Revelation of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties rocks Starmer government
December 31 rises to 54%4%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, despite Starmer's claims of full due process. This scandal led to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant and intensified calls for Starmer's resignation, causing market prices for Starmer's departure to rise significantly for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein sparked a political crisis, with calls for Starmer's resignation and internal party dissent, causing market uncertainty.
Starmer visits China seeking economic boost amid domestic challenges
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Starmer’s trip to China aimed to improve UK-China relations and secure economic investment to counteract domestic political and economic difficulties, providing some support to his leadership but with ongoing uncertainty reflected in market prices for June 30 outcome.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies
June 30 dips to 34%3%
Starmer publicly apologized, acknowledging he had believed Mandelson's claims about the Epstein connection. This admission further damaged his credibility.
Starmer apologizes to Epstein victims, admits Mandelson lied
June 30 dips to 33%2%
Starmer publicly apologized to victims of Jeffrey Epstein for appointing Mandelson, acknowledging the ambassador had lied about his relationship with Epstein. This admission increased political pressure but did not immediately trigger resignation, reflected in a slight market price decline.
Starmer remains unpopular but resilient amid political volatility
June 30 rises to 34%1%
Despite being the most unpopular UK Prime Minister ever, Starmer has shown resilience, recovering from setbacks and avoiding resignation, which tempered market expectations for his ousting by mid-2025.
Poll shows only a quarter of Labour members want Starmer to resign if Senedd election lost
June 30 rises to 36%2%
A Survation poll revealed limited support within Labour membership for Starmer's resignation even if the party lost the upcoming Senedd election, reducing immediate pressure on his leadership and contributing to price stabilization.
Starmer rejects calls to resign over Mandelson appointment despite pressure
Despite mounting pressure and calls for resignation from opposition and some within his party, Starmer publicly rejected demands to step down, asserting due process was followed. This stance stabilized the market somewhat, preventing further price declines for the June 30 outcome.
Starmer faces intensified scrutiny over Mandelson’s failed security vetting
June 30 drops to 33%5%
Revelations that Mandelson failed security vetting before his ambassadorial appointment and that Starmer may have misled Parliament intensified calls for his resignation, increasing political instability and impacting market confidence in Starmer’s survival through June 30.
Labour suffers major losses in local elections, Starmer under pressure
June 30 dips to 33%1%
Labour suffered significant losses in local elections, with Reform UK making major gains, further damaging Starmer's popularity and triggering calls for him to step down.
Market trough at 34% after local election losses for Labour
The market fell to 34% on October 20 following the local election results showing Labour losses and Reform UK gains, further undermining Starmer's position. This was part of a broader market trend from 38% to 33% on October 29.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham from Parliament bid
June 30 rises to 34%3%
Labour denied Andy Burnham permission to run in a special election, sparking internal party conflict. This decision was seen as an attempt to prevent a potential leadership challenge.
Starmer begins China visit to boost trade and ease political pressure
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Starmer travelled to Beijing for talks with President Xi Jinping, aiming to secure economic benefits and demonstrate diplomatic strength. The move was interpreted as a positive signal for the government’s stability, prompting a modest rebound in the June‑30 price.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson-Epstein scandal
June 30 dips to 33%4%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the controversial appointment of Mandelson. This resignation intensified the political crisis around Starmer, contributing to a market price drop reflecting increased risk of Starmer leaving office by June 30.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
June 30 drops to 31%6%
Local and regional elections delivered significant losses for Labour and major gains for Reform UK, with Starmer's popularity plummeting. This triggered widespread calls for him to resign.
Labour Party faces leadership crisis after Mandelson scandal
June 30 dips to 39%4%
The Mandelson scandal has triggered a leadership crisis within Labour, with opposition parties calling for Starmer to resign and potential rivals like Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham emerging.
Starmer faces parliamentary challenge over Mandelson Epstein scandal
June 30 dips to 40%4%
Following revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer faced intense scrutiny in Parliament. This event heightened concerns about Starmer's leadership and caused a notable market reaction, particularly impacting the June 30 outcome.
Starmer refuses to quit after heavy local‑election losses
June 30 drops to 33%5%
Following the local and regional elections that saw Labour lose more than half the seats it defended, Starmer publicly announced he would not resign. The news signaled continued internal party tension and kept the June‑30 outcome depressed as traders assessed the risk of a leadership challenge.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment decision
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, a move that further damaged Starmer's standing within the party.
UK sanctions Russian GRU officers over cyber‑espionage attack
The AP detailed a new sanctions package targeting Russian intelligence officers, which was interpreted as a strong security stance by Starmer and nudged the December‑31 contract upward.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, with Reform UK making major gains, threatening Starmer's position. This occurred during the market's price recovery phase to 43%.
Market shows slight rebound amid ongoing uncertainty over Starmer's future
June 30 jumps to 43%6%
Despite ongoing political pressure and unresolved questions about the Mandelson scandal, the market price for Starmer's resignation by June 30 rose modestly, reflecting some stabilization but continued uncertainty.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein scandal erupts
June 30 drops to 38%5%
AP reported that senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, had been appointed ambassador to the United States despite failing security vetting. The scandal intensified pressure on Starmer’s leadership, driving the June‑30 contract price down from its early‑October high.
Starmer apologizes for 'believing Mandelson's lies' amid Epstein scandal
Starmer publicly apologized for having believed Mandelson's claims about the vetting process, acknowledging he was misled. This admission intensified the scandal and contributed to the market's peak at 47% on October 10.
Revelations emerge that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
December 31 rises to 54%4%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson, appointed ambassador to the US by Starmer, failed security vetting, contradicting Starmer's claims of full due process. This sparked a political crisis and led to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant, Olly Robbins, raising questions about Starmer's knowledge and judgment.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat amid leadership tensions
June 30 rises to 43%4%
Labour's decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary by-election fueled internal party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges to Starmer, sustaining market doubts about his position.
Starmer’s policy push yields temporary bump in polls
June 30 drops to 33%9%
The Economist’s interactive tracker posted on 5 October 2025 showed a modest uptick in Starmer’s approval after a brief policy announcement. The slight optimism coincided with a small dip in the “June 30” market (price fell from 42 % to 33 % over the following weeks).
Chancellor admits breaking housing rules by renting out family home
June 30 drops to 42%5%
Labour's chancellor admitted to 'inadvertently' breaking housing regulations by renting out her south London home without the required £945 licence, undermining Starmer's image of a squeaky clean administration and triggering market concern about government credibility.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
June 30 dips to 44%3%
Starmer publicly apologized for having believed Mandelson's claims about his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, further undermining his credibility and intensifying calls for him to resign.
Revelation of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties sparks UK political crisis
December 31 jumps to 60%10%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, despite Starmer's claims of due process. This led to intense scrutiny of Starmer's judgment and integrity, causing market prices for Starmer's departure to rise significantly for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer defends his record after local election losses
June 30 rises to 46%4%
Following a poor showing in local elections, Starmer publicly refused to resign, stabilising the market and nudging the price back up to 46 % as investors reassessed the likelihood of a leadership challenge.
Revelation that Peter Mandelson appointed ambassador despite failing security vetting
December 31 rises to 54%4%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security vetting before his ambassadorial appointment, contradicting Starmer's claims of full due process. This revelation led to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant and raised serious questions about Starmer's knowledge and judgment, impacting the December 31 outcome price.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
June 30 jumps to 44%6%
Starmer publicly apologized for 'having believed Mandelson's lies' about Epstein ties, acknowledging his judgment was flawed and further undermining his credibility with the public and party.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment
June 30 rises to 43%3%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned, taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Peter Mandelson to the U.S. ambassadorship despite Epstein ties. This further intensified the political fallout.
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for US ambassador post
June 30 rises to 47%4%
The Guardian published documents showing Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before taking up the ambassadorial role, creating a major scandal that damaged Starmer's reputation and triggered political fallout.
Labour's future under threat as party faces leadership challenge
June 30 dips to 40%2%
With Labour's poll ratings at a low point and the party facing a leadership challenge, Starmer's position remains precarious. The market price briefly rose to 47% before settling at 40%.
US Justice Department releases Epstein-related documents showing Mandelson shared sensitive info
The US Justice Department released documents showing Mandelson shared market-sensitive information with Epstein during the 2008 financial crisis, reigniting the scandal and political pressure on Starmer. This caused a price spike to 47% before a drop to 39%.
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for U.S. ambassador post
The Guardian published documents showing Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before taking up the ambassadorial role, damaging Starmer's reputation and triggering fallout including the Foreign Office chief's resignation. This caused a significant price swing from 43% to 47% on October 5.
Poor local election results deepen Labour Party crisis under Starmer
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, weakening Starmer’s position and fueling speculation about a leadership challenge. Starmer vowed to stay, but internal party dissent increased, keeping market uncertainty high.
Frontbench resignation deepens Labour revolt over £5bn benefits cut
June 30 rises to 47%3%
BBC covered the resignation of Labour frontbencher Vicky Foxcroft over Starmer’s £5 billion benefits cut. The internal revolt heightened perceptions of political instability, nudging the market upward to a 47 % “Yes” level on 10 Oct.
Starmer refuses to quit after local elections deliver losses for Labour
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Following poor local election results that saw Labour suffer significant losses and gains by Reform UK, Starmer insisted he would not resign, despite growing calls within his party, causing a partial recovery in market confidence for his continued leadership past June 30.
Starmer vows not to quit after Labour suffers losses in local elections
June 30 rises to 43%3%
Following significant losses for Labour and gains for Reform UK in local elections, Starmer took responsibility but refused to resign, signaling ongoing leadership uncertainty and contributing to market fluctuations around the June 30 outcome.
Local elections deliver heavy losses for Labour, boosting speculation of a leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 57%6%
Labour suffered significant seat losses in the October 2025 local and regional elections, prompting commentators to view the results as a de‑facto referendum on Starmer’s leadership and increasing the market’s belief that he could be forced out before year‑end.
UK government agrees to release documents on Mandelson’s ambassador appointment
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Amid mounting anger over the Mandelson-Epstein scandal, the UK government agreed to release documents related to Mandelson’s appointment, aiming to quell criticism but keeping Starmer under pressure for his judgment and leadership.
Labour faces strategic dilemma amid Reform UK challenge and internal chaos
June 30 rises to 43%3%
Analysis highlighted Labour's ongoing struggles with internal resignations and being behind Reform UK in polls, increasing doubts about Starmer's leadership and survival chances. This contributed to market volatility and a peak in the June 30 outcome price.
Communications director Tim Allan resigns amid mounting pressure on Starmer
June 30 jumps to 43%6%
Tim Allan, Starmer's communications director, resigned, marking the fourth communications lead to leave under Starmer's premiership. This departure highlighted ongoing instability within Starmer's team and contributed to persistent doubts about his leadership, influencing market sentiment.
Starmer begins diplomatic tour of China to boost trade
June 30 rises to 42%3%
Starmer travelled to Beijing for a strategic partnership meeting with President Xi, a move aimed at revitalising the economy. The visit was welcomed by markets, contributing to a modest price rise from 39 % to 42 % over the next few days.
Labour Party Conference reveals government in chaos with multiple resignations
The Labour Party Conference in Liverpool revealed a government in turmoil with five consecutive resignations or firings of top officials, including No 10 strategist Tom Kibasi, deputy Angela Rayner, US ambassador Peter Mandelson, Paul Ovenden, and Steph Driver, fueling speculation about Starmer's leadership.
Keir Starmer issues statement on Manchester Synagogue attack
Starmer's response to a terrorist attack demonstrated his role as national leader during crises, but it did not significantly affect market expectations of his tenure.
Labour Party Conference exposes government turmoil and leadership doubts
June 30 rises to 40%3%
At the Labour Party Conference, multiple resignations and scandals were highlighted, including the departure of key aides and criticism of Starmer's leadership style. This fueled market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure, causing a price increase for the June 30 outcome from 37% to 40%.
Starmer delivers keynote speech amid party criticism
December 31 rises to 51%1%
At the Labour Conference, Starmer gave a keynote speech attempting to rally support, but faced criticism from former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and others, highlighting ongoing leadership challenges and limited market impact on his longer-term survival odds.
Local elections deliver heavy losses for Labour, boost Reform UK
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
AP covered the September local and regional elections, showing Labour’s significant seat losses and gains for Reform UK, reinforcing perceptions of Starmer’s weakening mandate and further depressing the June 30 outcome.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein ambassador appointment
June 30 rises to 44%1%
Starmer’s chief of staff resigned taking responsibility for advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer’s judgment. This event heightened pressure on Starmer’s leadership, affecting market confidence in his tenure lasting through June 30.
Labour Party conference sees growing calls for Starmer to resign
December 31 rises to 54%4%
At the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, a growing number of Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer to resign, with 77 MPs demanding his departure, signaling a critical loss of party support and increasing market expectations of his exit by year-end.
Labour Party faces internal rebellion after local election losses
Labour suffered substantial losses in local elections, prompting calls for leadership change and contributing to market volatility.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
May 31 jumps to 44%6%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, with Starmer's popularity plummeting and the hard-right Reform UK making major gains, triggering calls for Starmer to step down.
Starmer rejects calls to resign amid mounting pressure over Mandelson scandal
June 30 rises to 38%3%
Despite growing calls from opposition and some within his party to resign over the Mandelson appointment and vetting failures, Starmer publicly rejected resignation demands, attempting to stabilize his position. This led to a partial recovery in market confidence.
Starmer named least‑popular UK prime minister in historic poll
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
A Telegraph poll released on 27 September 2025, citing Ipsos data, named Starmer the least‑popular UK prime minister on record. The stark headline spooked traders, triggering a sharp rise in the “December 31” probability, which jumped from the low‑40s to above 60 % in the following weeks.
UK police open criminal investigation into Mandelson over alleged leaks to Epstein
June 30 rises to 38%3%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson for misconduct in public office related to his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, escalating the scandal and increasing political pressure on Starmer, reflected in market volatility around June 30 outcome.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
Starmer publicly apologized for having believed Mandelson's claims about his Epstein ties, acknowledging he misled Parliament. This occurred during the market's price recovery phase to 38%.
Starmer's deputy David Lammy defends integrity on Mandelson appointment
June 30 rises to 38%3%
David Lammy stated that if Starmer had known about the vetting issues, he would never have appointed Mandelson, attempting to defend Starmer's judgment during the ongoing scandal.
Labour suffers big losses in local elections; Starmer refuses to quit
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Labour's poor performance in local elections, with significant losses and gains by Reform UK, intensified pressure on Starmer's leadership. Starmer's refusal to resign despite the setbacks contributed to ongoing market uncertainty about his tenure.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Labour lost more than half the seats it was defending in local elections, with Reform UK making major gains, directly threatening Starmer's position and triggering calls for him to resign.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
May 31 rises to 35%1%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, with its poll ratings plummeting and the party facing a leadership challenge. This electoral setback increased pressure on Starmer to step down.
Starmer vows not to resign after local elections deliver losses for Labour
June 30 rises to 38%3%
Following poor local election results with significant losses for Labour and gains for Reform UK, Starmer took responsibility but refused to quit, stabilizing market sentiment temporarily despite ongoing leadership doubts.
Keir Starmer's director of communications Steph Driver resigns amid government turmoil
Steph Driver, a key communications aide to Starmer, resigned, marking another blow to the Prime Minister's team amid ongoing scandals and resignations, signaling internal instability and weakening Starmer's position.
Starmer faces leadership challenge amid cabinet reshuffle and resignations
Starmer conducted a cabinet reshuffle following the resignation of deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and other aides, attempting to stabilize his government. However, the reshuffle was seen as rushed and failed to restore confidence, keeping resignation odds elevated.
Keir Starmer announces plan for digital ID cards amid migration concerns
Starmer announced plans to introduce digital ID cards to tackle illegal migration, signaling a policy shift and an attempt to regain public support. This announcement temporarily stabilized market sentiment but did not directly affect resignation odds.
Starmer to introduce digital ID cards to tackle illegal migration
June 30 jumps to 43%5%
The Islington Gazette reported that Starmer would unveil a new digital ID scheme to curb illegal migration. The policy announcement lifted market confidence, contributing to the gradual rise from the mid‑30 % range toward a 43 % level by early October.
Keir Starmer announces plans for digital ID cards amid migration concerns
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Starmer announced a new digital ID card system to tackle illegal migration, aiming to show government action on key issues. This policy announcement helped stabilize some market confidence temporarily.
Keir Starmer vows to fight on, refuses to resign after aide resignations
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Following the resignations, Starmer publicly declared he would not resign and expressed confidence in his leadership, which helped the market partially recover from its lows.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson despite his Epstein ties. This intensified the political crisis around Starmer, raising questions about his leadership and judgment, contributing to market volatility.
Starmer's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson appointment advice
McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the scandal and political pressure on Starmer's leadership. This event occurred during the market's price recovery phase.
Labour suffers local election losses, Reform UK makes gains
June 30 rises to 34%2%
Local and regional elections delivered losses for Labour and wins for Reform UK, with Starmer stating he would not resign despite poor results, causing market price to rise to 34% on Sep 20.
Local and regional elections show heavy losses for Labour
Results released showing Labour losing more than half the seats it defended signaled deep voter dissatisfaction, increasing speculation of a leadership challenge and pushing the market higher for a resignation before the end of 2025.
Government agrees to release Mandelson appointment files
June 30 rises to 38%4%
Starmer announced the UK would publish documents related to Mandelson’s ambassadorship, aiming to quell criticism but also highlighting the depth of the controversy, which kept pressure on Starmer and maintained the depressed price for the June 30 outcome.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment advice
June 30 jumps to 33%7%
Morgan McSweeney resigned, taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, further damaging Starmer's reputation and increasing pressure for leadership change.
UK and Norway launch joint naval patrols to protect undersea cables
June 30 dips to 33%1%
AP reported that Starmer and Norway’s prime minister announced a joint naval operation to hunt Russian submarines and safeguard critical infrastructure. The diplomatic move was seen as a positive foreign‑policy achievement, helping the market recover modestly to the mid‑30 % range.
Starmer attempts to stabilize leadership amid growing calls for resignation
June 30 jumps to 32%6%
Starmer made public efforts to address the crisis and reassure the public and party members, leading to a partial recovery in market prices as some confidence was restored.
US President Donald Trump meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Chequers
This high-profile meeting underscored Starmer's active international engagement early in the period, temporarily stabilizing perceptions of his leadership amid emerging domestic challenges.
Polls show Starmer as least popular UK Prime Minister ever
June 30 drops to 26%11%
Polling data revealed Starmer's personal net satisfaction rating at historic lows, with widespread public dissatisfaction and Labour trailing in polls. This eroded confidence in his leadership and increased market expectations of his potential resignation by mid-2025.
Starmer's chief of staff and communications director resign amid Mandelson fallout
June 30 drops to 26%9%
Morgan McSweeney and Tim Allan resigned within 24 hours due to the Mandelson vetting scandal, intensifying pressure on Starmer and causing further market decline to a low point.
Mandelson appointment scandal leads to Foreign Office top civil servant resignation
Olly Robbins, the Foreign Office's top civil servant, resigned after being forced to clear Mandelson despite vetting concerns, adding to the political fallout. This contributed to the market's low point of 27% and subsequent recovery.
Market reacts to mounting pressure on Starmer amid Mandelson fallout
June 30 drops to 26%9%
Following the Mandelson vetting revelations and Robbins' dismissal, the market price for Starmer's resignation dropped to its lowest point, reflecting increased skepticism about his ability to remain in office.
Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer's resignation over Mandelson affair
June 30 drops to 26%9%
Following the Mandelson scandal, several Labour MPs expressed frustration and openly called for Keir Starmer to resign, reflecting growing internal party dissent and weakening his leadership position, which further pushed down the market odds for his resignation by June 30.
Starmer refuses to quit after heavy local election losses
June 30 drops to 27%8%
Following local and regional elections where Labour lost more than half the seats it defended and Reform UK made gains, Starmer announced he would stay on. The poor results heightened speculation of a leadership challenge, causing the June 30 price to fall further from 35% to 27%.
Peter Mandelson security vetting scandal breaks, sparking political crisis
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting but was appointed ambassador with Foreign Office override triggered a major political scandal. This led to resignations of Starmer's chief of staff and communications director, and calls for Starmer's resignation, causing a sharp market drop.
Starmer's senior strategy chief resigns amid scandal
June 30 plunges to 33%18%
Paul Ovenden, a top aide to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, resigned following revelations of inappropriate past conduct, marking the third forced departure in less than two weeks and signaling deepening instability in Starmer's government. This event caused a sharp drop in confidence for the June 30 outcome.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein scandal erupts
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
AP reported that senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, had been appointed ambassador despite failing security vetting. The scandal intensified pressure on Starmer’s leadership, prompting a sharp drop in the market’s Yes probability.
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for U.S. ambassador post
June 30 plunges to 27%30%
The Guardian exposed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming U.S. ambassador, creating a major scandal that damaged Starmer's reputation and triggered a sharp price drop to 27% on Sep 17.
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for US ambassador post
The Guardian published that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before taking up the ambassadorial role in early 2025, damaging Starmer's credibility and triggering a political crisis. This caused a sharp price peak to 57% before a subsequent drop to 27% on September 17.
Reports emerge of plans to replace Starmer amid internal Labour unrest
June 30 jumps to 57%6%
In September 2025, reports surfaced that groups of Labour MPs were planning to replace Keir Starmer, signaling internal party dissent and undermining his leadership stability. This contributed to initial market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure by mid-September.
Senior Cabinet ministers back Starmer amid Mandelson security vetting scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%22%
Despite the scandal over Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties, senior Cabinet ministers publicly supported Starmer, attempting to stabilize his leadership. However, the market reacted with a sharp drop reflecting uncertainty about Starmer's future.
Labour MPs warn Starmer faces ouster within months unless he improves
June 30 plunges to 33%18%
Labour MPs publicly warned Prime Minister Starmer that he risks being ousted soon if he does not turn around his leadership, reflecting growing internal dissent and increasing market doubts about his survival past mid-2026.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns triggering major cabinet reshuffle
June 30 plunges to 33%18%
Angela Rayner's resignation over a tax scandal led to a significant government reshuffle, with over half of ministers leaving or changing roles, exacerbating perceptions of crisis within Starmer's administration and contributing to market uncertainty.
Chief of staff resigns over Mandelson‑Epstein controversy
June 30 drops to 27%8%
The AP disclosed that Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, quit, taking responsibility for advising the Mandelson appointment. The resignation underscored internal turmoil and further lowered confidence in Starmer’s tenure, contributing to the market’s plunge to a low of 27 % on September 17.
BBC reveals Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
June 30 jumps to 57%6%
BBC reported that Peter Mandelson had failed security vetting before being appointed U.S. ambassador and that Starmer had claimed ignorance. The story triggered a surge in resignation odds, pushing the market to a 57 % “Yes” peak on the same day.
Mandelson vetting scandal revealed: Foreign Office cleared Epstein-linked politician despite security failures
June 30 plunges to 26%31%
The Guardian revealed Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming U.S. ambassador, causing a political crisis and triggering the resignation of Foreign Office's top civil servant, Olly Robbins. This scandal damaged Starmer's reputation and led to calls for his resignation.
Starmer resignation odds surge after Mandelson vetting scandal
June 30 jumps to 59%8%
Kalshi’s market data show a sharp rise from 51 % to 59 % “Yes” after Reuters‑sourced reporting revealed that Peter Mandelson had failed security vetting for the U.S. ambassador post and that the Foreign Office had over‑ruled the vetting recommendation. The revelation sparked calls for Starmer’s resignation and lifted the probability of him being out before June 2026, driving the market’s June 30 outcome higher.
Starmer faces mounting pressure after Mandelson sacked as ambassador
June 30 jumps to 44%10%
BBC reporting on 15 September detailed the pressure on Starmer after the sacking of Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador, noting that the scandal was intensifying calls for the prime minister’s resignation. The story coincided with a market trough (26 % on 17 Sep) and a subsequent rebound, marking the June 30 outcome’s movement upward.
Starmer’s strategy chief quits amid explicit Diane Abbott messages scandal
June 30 jumps to 44%10%
Bloomberg reported that Starmer’s senior strategist Paul Ovenden resigned on 15 September after offensive messages about MP Diane Abbott were leaked. The resignation added to the perception of a collapsing administration, nudging the market’s June 30 outcome higher in the days that followed (price rose from 34 % on 14 Sep to 44 % on 15 Sep).
Starmer leads UK delegation to China for strategic partnership talks
AP reported Starmer’s four‑day visit to Beijing, aimed at deepening UK‑China ties, which helped lift longer‑dated contracts as the market saw diplomatic engagement as a sign of political stability.
Four Labour ministers resign amid calls for Starmer to quit after local election losses
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Following devastating local election results, four junior ministers including Jess Phillips resigned from Keir Starmer's government, signaling deepening internal party dissent and increasing pressure on Starmer's leadership. This event caused a notable drop in confidence for Starmer's short-term tenure, impacting the June 30 outcome price.
Allies rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson‑Epstein scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, was appointed ambassador despite failed security vetting. The show of support reduced market fears of an imminent leadership crisis, pulling the June 30 price down from 51% to 35%.
Revelations emerge that Peter Mandelson was appointed US ambassador without full security vetting
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
News broke that Peter Mandelson was appointed as UK ambassador to the US before completing in-depth security vetting, raising serious questions about the appointment process and Starmer's judgment. This triggered a sharp drop in the market's price for Starmer's resignation by June 30, reflecting increased perceived risk to his premiership.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson Epstein scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Starmer's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer's judgment, which pressured the market downward for the June 30 outcome.
Peter Mandelson sacked as UK ambassador amid Epstein scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Revelations about Peter Mandelson's close ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and his failed security vetting led to his dismissal as UK ambassador to the US. This event triggered a sharp decline in confidence in Prime Minister Keir Starmer's judgment, causing the market odds for his resignation by June 30 to drop significantly.
Peter Mandelson dismissed as UK Ambassador amid Epstein ties scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Peter Mandelson was dismissed from his ambassadorial post in September 2025 after revelations of his association with Jeffrey Epstein surfaced, triggering political controversy and scrutiny of Prime Minister Starmer's judgment. This event increased market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure, impacting the June 30 outcome price which dropped from 51% to 35%.
Revelation of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties rocks Starmer's leadership
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, despite his friendship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. This scandal severely damaged Starmer's credibility and led to calls for his resignation, causing a significant rise in the market probability for Starmer leaving by December 31, 2025.
Keir Starmer faces leadership challenge amid Labour Party unrest
June 30 jumps to 32%6%
Following Labour's poor local election results, Labour MPs openly called for Starmer's resignation, with threats of a leadership challenge. This internal party unrest increased market expectations of Starmer's removal by June 30, 2026, reflected in rising YES probabilities.
Revelations of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties rock Starmer's leadership
December 31 plunges to 35%15%
The disclosure that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein triggered a major political crisis for Starmer, leading to calls for his resignation and a drop in market confidence for near-term departure.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein scandal erupts
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
AP reported that senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer amid revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, received a diplomatic posting despite failing security vetting, intensifying calls for Starmer’s resignation.
Revelation that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, contradicting Starmer's claim that full due process was followed. This intensified scrutiny on Starmer's judgment and triggered political fallout including the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant.
Keir Starmer faces mounting internal Labour Party crisis amid poor local election results
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Reports emerged of a political crisis within the Labour Party, with poor local election results leading to calls for Starmer's resignation and cabinet instability. This increased market expectations for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Reports emerge of plans to replace Starmer among Labour MPs
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Media reports indicated internal Labour plans to replace Starmer, reflecting early leadership instability and influencing market prices downward for near-term resignation outcomes.
Starmer faces backlash after Labour suffers losses in local elections
December 31 dips to 50%1%
Labour's poor performance in local elections led to calls within the party for Starmer to resign, reflecting declining confidence in his leadership amid economic and policy challenges. This event increased market speculation about Starmer's potential departure by year-end.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein sparked a political crisis for Starmer, leading to calls for his resignation and a sharp drop in market confidence for his continued leadership by June 30.
Labour suffers heavy losses in UK local and regional elections
The local elections delivered a decisive defeat for Starmer’s Labour Party, with the party losing more than half the seats it defended. The result was interpreted as a de‑facto referendum on Starmer’s leadership, prompting a sharp rise in the probability he would step down before year‑end.
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