Name: Starmer out by...?
Start: 2025-02-03T18:45:44.284313Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

December 31, 2025

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

December 31, 2026

Starmer out by...?

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No significant events or updates are available at this time due to the absence of relevant social media content. Further monitoring is required to provide insights on key developments.

Market News Update

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Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves face intense criticism over their recent Budget, with predictions from figures like Stephen Flynn that it may be their last due to its failure to deliver promised economic growth. Public disapproval of Starmer is high at 68%, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the UK's economic direction under their leadership.

Starmer Faces Budget Backlash

World leader’s disapproval rating:

🇫🇷 Emmanuel Macron: 80%
🇨🇿 Petr Fiala: 71%
🇬🇧 Keir Starmer: 68%
🇩🇪 Friedrich Merz: 65%
🇿🇦 Cyril Ramaphosa: 63%
🇳🇴 Jonas Gahr Støre: 63%
🇪🇸 Pedro Sánchez: 60%
🇦🇹 Christian Stocker: 57%
🇸🇪 Ulf Kristersson: 55%
🇧🇷 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 55%
🇮🇹

Time and again Keir Starmer told us if we made him PM he’d kickstart growth and make UK fastest growing economy in G7 during the second half of the decade. 
He (and Reeves) have done the opposite. 
The last Tory Budget was March 2024 when the OBR forecast the economy would be 9%

Rachel Reeve’s Budget guarantees that Keir Starmer will never win a General Election again - ever

This was Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves's last Budget, Stephen Flynn predicts https://t.co/DDXGUFUXOO

Stephen Flynn has predicted today's Budget 'was Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves's last' https://t.co/oRWmzT4ep6

No tweets are available for analysis at this time. Further updates will be provided as new information or social media activity emerges.

Market Update Pending

No significant events or updates have been reported in the current data set. Further monitoring is required to identify any impactful news or developments.

Keir Starmer and his Labour government, including key figures like Rachel Reeves and Angela Rayner, face intense criticism for broken promises on taxes, budget decisions, and policies perceived as self-serving. Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch has publicly challenged Starmer during PMQs, accusing the administration of incompetence and damaging credibility, while public disapproval ratings for Starmer soar to 68%.

Starmer Faces Criticism

🚨 Breaking 🚨 

Keir Starmer's digital ID to cost £1.8 BILLION pounds over the next three years - leaked OBR report reveals.

If we don’t act now, we could all be forced by law to get a digital ID that no doubt will be demanded by anyone with authority, putting your sensitive https://t.co/zjvWXnB4eT

.@Keir_Starmer @RachelReevesMP et al need to apologise - publicly - to these MPs. 

#Budget2025 https://t.co/BuzWN6Bkjz

If you want to see Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer get ripped to shreds for 20 full minutes

LOOK NO FURTHER

Kemi Badenoch, hats off, did an incredible job there

Absolutely decimated 👏 https://t.co/BH0oYnPMuq

Keir Starmer isn’t fit for office.
Rachel Reeves isn’t fit for office.
David Lammy isn’t fit for office.
West Streeting isn’t fit for office.
Yvette Cooper isn’t fit for office.
Ed Miliband isn’t fit for office.

Labour isn’t fit for office.
Sack ‘em all off.

PMQs. Here we go again. 

Keir Starmer REFUSES to answer a single question. He just regurgitates meaningless soundbites.

"I will take no lectures"
"liZ tRUsS CRaSheD tHE EcONomY"
"14 years of the Tories"
"LiZ trUSS"
"Breakfast clubs"
"The Tories"

Complete waste of time. https://t.co/VOmZkACC8H

Keir Starmer ended the two child benefit cap as a bribe to migrant families to vote for him

Don't let anyone tell you otherwise

I still can’t get over how great Conservative Kemi Badenoch was today.

She ripped apart Keir Starmer at #PMQs, who was left stuttering and unable to answer her questions.

Then she tore to shreds the budget and Rachel Reeves’s incompetence.

A clinical and brilliant performance. https://t.co/VElNsLi9Qr

Rachel Reeves has broken her promises not to put up taxes. And all to fund more welfare.

She should resign. But if she doesn't have the decency to do that, Keir Starmer should sack her.

Keir Starmer's plan is to import millions of foreigners and then bribe them to vote for him

He is a traitor

This will be the last Labour Government https://t.co/wz08rFMqcD

🚨NEW: Keir Starmer has been community noted on a post claiming the government is making energy bills cheaper https://t.co/wzslVuQAfg

🇬🇧 You couldn't make it up

Keir Starmer can't sack gormless Lisa Nandy for breaching the ministerial code (which she did, in appointing someone who donated to her campaign) - because he would also have to sack himself over the exact same offence
FARCICAL 🇬🇧 https://t.co/KmyZzLxHzm

Keir Starmer receives a community note &amp; fact check. https://t.co/XJv2LfxYJr

Keir Starmer:  Angela Rayner "is the biggest social mobility story that this country has ever told.”

Kemi Badenoch: "I have never heard the Prime Minister speak so highly of people avoiding their taxes."

Starmer would never speak so highly of a Tory who avoided tax. #PMQs https://t.co/fVPpQeC7tp

Just as fuckin deadly @Keir_Starmer @RachelReevesMP  - and about as popular. https://t.co/NKCYePDjUa

That’s what a strong leader does, one  who cares for his people. Take note, @Keir_Starmer. https://t.co/61VY4eQ98S

Keir Starmer calls Angela Rayner "the biggest social mobility story this country has ever told"

Kemi Badenoch: "I have never heard the Prime Minister speak so highly of someone who avoided their taxes"

'Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer are using our money to save their jobs.'

@KemiBadenoch makes no apologies for her 'personal attack' on the Chancellor at the despatch box. https://t.co/iOwUzKUvd6

ANALYSIS: A Budget of self-preservation that blows pledges made to the public while pleasing the party. The same old Labour? Why the leadership’s credibility might not be recoverable
https://t.co/CyGj2L8WNy

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves face intense criticism over a recent UK budget, with many accusing it of failing to deliver promised economic growth and instead prioritizing political survival within the Labour Party. Public disapproval ratings for Starmer are high at 68%, and opponents predict this budget could be their last, signaling potential political and economic fallout.

Starmer Budget Backlash

So delving in and boiling it down to 'who was this budget for' - its clear:

This budget is to keep the back benchers happy, stop a leadership challenge so that @Keir_Starmer stays PM and @RachelReevesMP stays Chancellor with leadership challenges stopped - for now.

So, are you

We need a general election. We’re heading for bankruptcy. 

Kemi Badenoch was spot on in highlighting Labour’s incompetence. These tax rises are due to Labour’s economic mismanagement. 

Rachel Reeves should resign and take Keir Starmer with her. https://t.co/EMNfWuET7c https://t.co/WHyiMvb52T

** NEW: Bloomberg Budget analysis **

— Labour MPs say Rachel Reeves has done enough to help her and Keir Starmer survive. Markets reacted positively. But on both fronts there’s little sign this was a turning point longer-term.

— The OBR conclusion that the budget does nothing

'It was even more important to please the people sitting behind her.'
 
@lewis_goodall says the Budget has 'shored up' Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer's internal position but has been 'deleterious' to their external position. https://t.co/DKbLtNIgtl

No significant events or updates are available at this time due to the absence of relevant social media content. Further monitoring is required to capture any emerging news or developments.

Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Keir Starmer titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/keir-starmer/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 4+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rachel Reeves announces her resignation or otherwise ceases to be Chancellor of the Exchequer for any period of time between November 11 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only official announcements of Reeves’s resignation or removal before her term is scheduled to end, for example, made by Reeves or the British Prime Minister, will qualify.

Temporary absences or attempts at termination which do not actually remove Reeves from the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the UK Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Rachel Reeves out as Chancellor of the Exchequer by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between December 2, 2025 and the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 ET:

- Trump out as US President
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine President
- Nicolás Maduro out as Venezuela's President
- Netanyahu out as Prime Minister of Israel
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Starmer out as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Zelenskyy announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zelensky resigns in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between February 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Von der Leyen out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Pakistan within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between December 4, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Lecornu  out as French PM by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces that he will resign from his position as  United States senator from Pennsylvania, or otherwise ceases to be Senator for any length of time, between May 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Fetterman or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Fetterman out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Prime Minister of the Morocco Aziz Akhannouch is removed from power for any length of time between October 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Aziz Akhannouch will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Morocco within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Starmer out by...?

December 31, 2025
$1,197,687 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

June 30, 2026
$124,074 Vol.
35%
0123456789
%

December 31, 2026
$28,026 Vol.
62%
0123456789
%

Market Context

Starmer out by...?

Rules

Starmer out by...?

Market Context

Starmer out by...?

About

Related

Starmer out by...?

December 31, 2025$1,197,687 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.3¢buy No98.8¢

June 30, 2026$124,074 Vol.35%0123456789%buy Yes36¢buy No66¢

December 31, 2026$28,026 Vol.62%0123456789%buy Yes66¢buy No42¢

Market Context

Starmer out by...?

Rules

Starmer out by...?

Market Context

Starmer out by...?

About

Related

December 31, 2025
$1,197,687 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

June 30, 2026
$124,074 Vol.
35%
0123456789
%

December 31, 2026
$28,026 Vol.
62%
0123456789
%