The election held on September 20, 2026, produced preliminary results showing the AfD at 38.2% and the SPD at 35.5%, a margin that aligns with the market's near-certain pricing for AfD receiving more votes. Late-campaign polling had narrowed to a statistical tie or slight SPD edge after months of AfD leads, yet higher turnout and stronger AfD performance in key districts delivered the outcome. Official final tallies, any district-level recounts, or minor adjustments to absentee and mail ballots remain outstanding, though the current gap makes reversal highly improbable absent large-scale discrepancies. Trader consensus reflects these verified vote shares rather than pre-election forecasts or coalition prospects.