JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 20% as vice president and presumed Republican frontrunner following Donald Trump's 2024 victory and term limits, with California Governor Gavin Newsom close at 17.9% amid Democratic searches for a post-Harris leader. Marco Rubio trails at 12%, reflecting a fragmented GOP field bolstered by Trump allies, while progressive figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (4.8%) draw niche support. Trader sentiment stays tight due to the four-year horizon, absent primaries, and low liquidity amplifying volatility; no dominant national narrative has emerged. Separation could arise from 2026 midterms, gubernatorial successes, Trump endorsements, or economic shifts under the current administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPresidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance 20.0%
Gavin Newsom 17.9%
Marco Rubio 12.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$437,776,153 Vol.
$437,776,153 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
JD Vance 20.0%
Gavin Newsom 17.9%
Marco Rubio 12.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$437,776,153 Vol.
$437,776,153 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
4%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner odds at 20% as vice president and presumed Republican frontrunner following Donald Trump's 2024 victory and term limits, with California Governor Gavin Newsom close at 17.9% amid Democratic searches for a post-Harris leader. Marco Rubio trails at 12%, reflecting a fragmented GOP field bolstered by Trump allies, while progressive figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (4.8%) draw niche support. Trader sentiment stays tight due to the four-year horizon, absent primaries, and low liquidity amplifying volatility; no dominant national narrative has emerged. Separation could arise from 2026 midterms, gubernatorial successes, Trump endorsements, or economic shifts under the current administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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