Incumbent Democratic Representative Madeleine Dean secured her party's nomination without opposition in the May 19, 2026 primary, while Republican Aurora Stuski advanced similarly on the other side. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8, and independent forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic. These structural factors, combined with Dean's established record since 2019, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 3 general election. A major national political shift, unexpected scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset at this stage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,596 交易量
$10,596 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$10,596 交易量
$10,596 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,626 交易量
94%
共和党
$6,970 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Madeleine Dean secured her party's nomination without opposition in the May 19, 2026 primary, while Republican Aurora Stuski advanced similarly on the other side. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8, and independent forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic. These structural factors, combined with Dean's established record since 2019, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 3 general election. A major national political shift, unexpected scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$10,596结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Madeleine Dean secured her party's nomination without opposition in the May 19, 2026 primary, while Republican Aurora Stuski advanced similarly on the other side. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8, and independent forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic. These structural factors, combined with Dean's established record since 2019, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 3 general election. A major national political shift, unexpected scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$10,596结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Madeleine Dean secured her party's nomination without opposition in the May 19, 2026 primary, while Republican Aurora Stuski advanced similarly on the other side. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8, and independent forecasters rate the seat as solidly or safely Democratic. These structural factors, combined with Dean's established record since 2019, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 3 general election. A major national political shift, unexpected scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset at this stage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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