Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle dominates trader sentiment in the NY-25 House race, reflecting the district's D+10 Cook PVI and his history of easy reelections since a 2018 special election victory. With the April 6 filing deadline passed, Morelle boasts over $1.3 million in receipts and $629,000 cash on hand through March 31, dwarfing primary challengers Robin Wilt ($22,000 receipts) and others, as well as sole listed Republican Virginia McIntyre ($19,000 receipts). No polls exist, but weak GOP fundraising and no competitive history sustain 93.5% implied probability for Democrats ahead of June 23 closed primaries. A major scandal, Morelle primary upset, or Republican midterm wave could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-25 House Election Winner
NY-25 House Election Winner
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,399 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$8,300 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle dominates trader sentiment in the NY-25 House race, reflecting the district's D+10 Cook PVI and his history of easy reelections since a 2018 special election victory. With the April 6 filing deadline passed, Morelle boasts over $1.3 million in receipts and $629,000 cash on hand through March 31, dwarfing primary challengers Robin Wilt ($22,000 receipts) and others, as well as sole listed Republican Virginia McIntyre ($19,000 receipts). No polls exist, but weak GOP fundraising and no competitive history sustain 93.5% implied probability for Democrats ahead of June 23 closed primaries. A major scandal, Morelle primary upset, or Republican midterm wave could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$14,699End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle dominates trader sentiment in the NY-25 House race, reflecting the district's D+10 Cook PVI and his history of easy reelections since a 2018 special election victory. With the April 6 filing deadline passed, Morelle boasts over $1.3 million in receipts and $629,000 cash on hand through March 31, dwarfing primary challengers Robin Wilt ($22,000 receipts) and others, as well as sole listed Republican Virginia McIntyre ($19,000 receipts). No polls exist, but weak GOP fundraising and no competitive history sustain 93.5% implied probability for Democrats ahead of June 23 closed primaries. A major scandal, Morelle primary upset, or Republican midterm wave could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,699End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle dominates trader sentiment in the NY-25 House race, reflecting the district's D+10 Cook PVI and his history of easy reelections since a 2018 special election victory. With the April 6 filing deadline passed, Morelle boasts over $1.3 million in receipts and $629,000 cash on hand through March 31, dwarfing primary challengers Robin Wilt ($22,000 receipts) and others, as well as sole listed Republican Virginia McIntyre ($19,000 receipts). No polls exist, but weak GOP fundraising and no competitive history sustain 93.5% implied probability for Democrats ahead of June 23 closed primaries. A major scandal, Morelle primary upset, or Republican midterm wave could challenge this, though structural advantages persist.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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