John Moolenaar’s commanding position in Michigan’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the seat’s entrenched Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As the incumbent since 2015, Moolenaar faced no primary opposition and has outraised challenger Ben Ambrose by a wide margin, with over $1.6 million in receipts compared to Ambrose’s roughly $85,000. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors. A major unforeseen event, such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, would be required to meaningfully shift probabilities in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-02 House Election Winner
MI-02 House Election Winner
$53,943 Vol.
$53,943 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
John Moolenaar (R)
98%
Ben Ambrose (D)
1%
$53,943 Vol.
$53,943 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
John Moolenaar (R)
$22,752 Vol.
98%
Ben Ambrose (D)
$31,190 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John Moolenaar’s commanding position in Michigan’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the seat’s entrenched Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As the incumbent since 2015, Moolenaar faced no primary opposition and has outraised challenger Ben Ambrose by a wide margin, with over $1.6 million in receipts compared to Ambrose’s roughly $85,000. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors. A major unforeseen event, such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, would be required to meaningfully shift probabilities in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$53,943End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John Moolenaar’s commanding position in Michigan’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the seat’s entrenched Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As the incumbent since 2015, Moolenaar faced no primary opposition and has outraised challenger Ben Ambrose by a wide margin, with over $1.6 million in receipts compared to Ambrose’s roughly $85,000. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors. A major unforeseen event, such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, would be required to meaningfully shift probabilities in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$53,943End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...John Moolenaar’s commanding position in Michigan’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the seat’s entrenched Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. As the incumbent since 2015, Moolenaar faced no primary opposition and has outraised challenger Ben Ambrose by a wide margin, with over $1.6 million in receipts compared to Ambrose’s roughly $85,000. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors. A major unforeseen event, such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, would be required to meaningfully shift probabilities in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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