**Incumbent Republican Nick LaLota's reelection bid in New York's 1st Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 64.5% for the GOP, reflecting the Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating amid his comfortable 2024 victory over Democrat John Avlon.** With primaries set for June 23, 2026, and the general election on November 3, no prominent Democratic challengers have emerged, reducing perceived flip risk despite national generic ballot polls showing Democrats with a slim lead. A January House Majority PAC survey highlighted LaLota's vulnerability, but forecasters prioritize incumbency advantages and the district's Republican lean on eastern Long Island, positioning Democrats at 31.5% as underdogs absent a strong nominee or national wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNY-01 House Election Winner
NY-01 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
65%
Democratic Party
32%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
65%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Nick LaLota's reelection bid in New York's 1st Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 64.5% for the GOP, reflecting the Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating amid his comfortable 2024 victory over Democrat John Avlon.** With primaries set for June 23, 2026, and the general election on November 3, no prominent Democratic challengers have emerged, reducing perceived flip risk despite national generic ballot polls showing Democrats with a slim lead. A January House Majority PAC survey highlighted LaLota's vulnerability, but forecasters prioritize incumbency advantages and the district's Republican lean on eastern Long Island, positioning Democrats at 31.5% as underdogs absent a strong nominee or national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Nick LaLota's reelection bid in New York's 1st Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 64.5% for the GOP, reflecting the Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating amid his comfortable 2024 victory over Democrat John Avlon.** With primaries set for June 23, 2026, and the general election on November 3, no prominent Democratic challengers have emerged, reducing perceived flip risk despite national generic ballot polls showing Democrats with a slim lead. A January House Majority PAC survey highlighted LaLota's vulnerability, but forecasters prioritize incumbency advantages and the district's Republican lean on eastern Long Island, positioning Democrats at 31.5% as underdogs absent a strong nominee or national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Republican Nick LaLota's reelection bid in New York's 1st Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 64.5% for the GOP, reflecting the Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating amid his comfortable 2024 victory over Democrat John Avlon.** With primaries set for June 23, 2026, and the general election on November 3, no prominent Democratic challengers have emerged, reducing perceived flip risk despite national generic ballot polls showing Democrats with a slim lead. A January House Majority PAC survey highlighted LaLota's vulnerability, but forecasters prioritize incumbency advantages and the district's Republican lean on eastern Long Island, positioning Democrats at 31.5% as underdogs absent a strong nominee or national wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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