In Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary, state Sen. John Cavanaugh holds a slim 53.5% trader consensus edge over nonprofit executive Denise Powell at 43.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on his state legislature experience and recent fundraising surge that overtook Powell in Q4 2025, despite her overall cash lead. Heavy outside spending—millions from pro-Powell PACs like Fight for Nebraska and EMILY's List, including $1.8 million in anti-Cavanaugh ads—has fueled dueling negative attacks over "dark money," state legislative control risks, and policy differences like Israel, but traders appear skeptical of a recent pro-Powell GQR poll showing her up 41-34. A May 7 forum highlighted shared affordability and healthcare pitches amid GOP meddling ads targeting Cavanaugh, with turnout pivotal before the May 12 vote in this open swing seat flip opportunity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJohn Cavanaugh 54%
Denise Powell 44%
Mark Johnston <1%
Evangelos Argyrakis <1%
$26,089 Vol.
$26,089 Vol.
John Cavanaugh
54%
Denise Powell
44%
Mark Johnston
<1%
Evangelos Argyrakis
<1%
John Cavanaugh 54%
Denise Powell 44%
Mark Johnston <1%
Evangelos Argyrakis <1%
$26,089 Vol.
$26,089 Vol.
John Cavanaugh
54%
Denise Powell
44%
Mark Johnston
<1%
Evangelos Argyrakis
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 4:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary, state Sen. John Cavanaugh holds a slim 53.5% trader consensus edge over nonprofit executive Denise Powell at 43.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on his state legislature experience and recent fundraising surge that overtook Powell in Q4 2025, despite her overall cash lead. Heavy outside spending—millions from pro-Powell PACs like Fight for Nebraska and EMILY's List, including $1.8 million in anti-Cavanaugh ads—has fueled dueling negative attacks over "dark money," state legislative control risks, and policy differences like Israel, but traders appear skeptical of a recent pro-Powell GQR poll showing her up 41-34. A May 7 forum highlighted shared affordability and healthcare pitches amid GOP meddling ads targeting Cavanaugh, with turnout pivotal before the May 12 vote in this open swing seat flip opportunity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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