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選挙·世界選挙

ソマリランドの議会選挙の勝者

Market icon
選挙·世界選挙

ソマリランドの議会選挙の勝者

2027年以前に選挙はなし 74%

ワダニ 12%

クルミエ 4.9%

正義福祉党（UCID） 3.9%

Polymarket
NEW

2027年以前に選挙はなし 74%

ワダニ 12%

クルミエ 4.9%

正義福祉党（UCID） 3.9%

Polymarket
NEW
Market icon

2027年以前に選挙はなし

$2,981 Vol.

74%

Market icon

ワダニ

$1,458 Vol.

12%

Market icon

クルミエ

$1,263 Vol.

5%

Market icon

正義福祉党（UCID）

$2,966 Vol.

4%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Trader consensus heavily favors no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 70%, reflecting two decades of delays since the last vote in 2005 amid unresolved disputes over biometric voter registration, clan representation quotas, and funding shortages. The recent November 13, 2024, presidential election—won by incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi of Kulmiye with 54.8% despite Waddani and UCID challenges rejected by the constitutional court—has yet to yield a firm parliamentary timeline, reinforcing postponement expectations. Waddani's strong 39.6% presidential showing positions it as the leading party contender at 12.5%, ahead of ruling Kulmiye (6.4%) and UCID (4%), with traders eyeing potential momentum but skeptical of near-term polls absent Electoral Commission announcements.

Trader consensus heavily favors no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 70%, reflecting two decades of delays since the last vote in 2005 amid unresolved disputes over biometric voter registration, clan representation quotas, and funding shortages. The recent November 13, 2024, presidential election—won by incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi of Kulmiye with 54.8% despite Waddani and UCID challenges rejected by the constitutional court—has yet to yield a firm parliamentary timeline, reinforcing postponement expectations. Waddani's strong 39.6% presidential showing positions it as the leading party contender at 12.5%, ahead of ruling Kulmiye (6.4%) and UCID (4%), with traders eyeing potential momentum but skeptical of near-term polls absent Electoral Commission announcements.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Trader consensus heavily favors no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 70%, reflecting two decades of delays since the last vote in 2005 amid unresolved disputes over biometric voter registration, clan representation quotas, and funding shortages. The recent November 13, 2024, presidential election—won by incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi of Kulmiye with 54.8% despite Waddani and UCID challenges rejected by the constitutional court—has yet to yield a firm parliamentary timeline, reinforcing postponement expectations. Waddani's strong 39.6% presidential showing positions it as the leading party contender at 12.5%, ahead of ruling Kulmiye (6.4%) and UCID (4%), with traders eyeing potential momentum but skeptical of near-term polls absent Electoral Commission announcements.

Trader consensus heavily favors no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 70%, reflecting two decades of delays since the last vote in 2005 amid unresolved disputes over biometric voter registration, clan representation quotas, and funding shortages. The recent November 13, 2024, presidential election—won by incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi of Kulmiye with 54.8% despite Waddani and UCID challenges rejected by the constitutional court—has yet to yield a firm parliamentary timeline, reinforcing postponement expectations. Waddani's strong 39.6% presidential showing positions it as the leading party contender at 12.5%, ahead of ruling Kulmiye (6.4%) and UCID (4%), with traders eyeing potential momentum but skeptical of near-term polls absent Electoral Commission announcements.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ソマリランドの議会選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2027年以前に選挙はなし」で74%、次いで「ワダニ」が12%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、74¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に74%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「ソマリランドの議会選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Dec 16, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「ソマリランドの議会選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ソマリランドの議会選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「2027年以前に選挙はなし」で74%であり、市場がこの結果に74%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ワダニ」で12%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ソマリランドの議会選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。