Charles Hittler's dominant 94.5% implied probability in the Arcis-sur-Aube mayoral election reflects his strong incumbency advantage as the sitting mayor, bolstered by a decisive 2020 victory and recent local polling showing him well ahead among voters in the small Aube commune. Trader consensus emphasizes Hittler's track record on community projects and lack of serious challengers, with Antoine Renault-Zielinski's National Rally bid and Annie Soucat's left-leaning campaign gaining minimal traction amid subdued campaign activity. Potential shifts could arise from a late scandal, high abstention rates favoring opposition, or unexpected endorsements before the 2026 first-round vote, though historical base rates in similar rural contests favor continuity for popular incumbents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Charles Hittler 95%
Annie Soucat 2.5%
Antoine Renault-Zielinski 2.4%
NEW
NEW
Mar 22, 2026
Charles Hittler
95%
Annie Soucat
3%
Antoine Renault-Zielinski
2%
Charles Hittler 95%
Annie Soucat 2.5%
Antoine Renault-Zielinski 2.4%
NEW
NEW
Mar 22, 2026
Charles Hittler
$1,941 Vol.
95%
Annie Soucat
$568 Vol.
3%
Antoine Renault-Zielinski
$317 Vol.
2%
The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
マーケット開始日： Mar 19, 2026, 9:07 AM ET
音量
$2,827終了日
Mar 22, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 9:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Arcis-sur-Aube is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Arcis-sur-Aube.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
音量
$2,827終了日
Mar 22, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 19, 2026, 9:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Charles Hittler's dominant 94.5% implied probability in the Arcis-sur-Aube mayoral election reflects his strong incumbency advantage as the sitting mayor, bolstered by a decisive 2020 victory and recent local polling showing him well ahead among voters in the small Aube commune. Trader consensus emphasizes Hittler's track record on community projects and lack of serious challengers, with Antoine Renault-Zielinski's National Rally bid and Annie Soucat's left-leaning campaign gaining minimal traction amid subdued campaign activity. Potential shifts could arise from a late scandal, high abstention rates favoring opposition, or unexpected endorsements before the 2026 first-round vote, though historical base rates in similar rural contests favor continuity for popular incumbents.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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