Rep. Daniel Webster's April 28 retirement opened Florida's 11th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voting index, driving trader consensus to price the Republican Party at 81.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. The district's conservative strongholds in Lake, Sumter, and western Orange counties, where Webster won 60% in 2024, sustain GOP dominance despite the open seat and crowded Republican primary featuring candidates like Anthony Sabatini, Steve Farley, and Mike Wilnau. A modest Democratic field lacks notable challengers, while Gov. Ron DeSantis' newly signed congressional maps reinforce statewide Republican advantages. Primaries are August 18, with filing deadline June 12; no district-specific polls have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-11 House Election Winner
FL-11 House Election Winner
$18,309 Vol.
$18,309 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
82%
Democratic Party
15%
$18,309 Vol.
$18,309 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$7,245 Vol.
82%
Democratic Party
$11,065 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rep. Daniel Webster's April 28 retirement opened Florida's 11th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voting index, driving trader consensus to price the Republican Party at 81.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. The district's conservative strongholds in Lake, Sumter, and western Orange counties, where Webster won 60% in 2024, sustain GOP dominance despite the open seat and crowded Republican primary featuring candidates like Anthony Sabatini, Steve Farley, and Mike Wilnau. A modest Democratic field lacks notable challengers, while Gov. Ron DeSantis' newly signed congressional maps reinforce statewide Republican advantages. Primaries are August 18, with filing deadline June 12; no district-specific polls have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$18,309End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rep. Daniel Webster's April 28 retirement opened Florida's 11th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voting index, driving trader consensus to price the Republican Party at 81.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. The district's conservative strongholds in Lake, Sumter, and western Orange counties, where Webster won 60% in 2024, sustain GOP dominance despite the open seat and crowded Republican primary featuring candidates like Anthony Sabatini, Steve Farley, and Mike Wilnau. A modest Democratic field lacks notable challengers, while Gov. Ron DeSantis' newly signed congressional maps reinforce statewide Republican advantages. Primaries are August 18, with filing deadline June 12; no district-specific polls have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,309End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rep. Daniel Webster's April 28 retirement opened Florida's 11th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+8 partisan voting index, driving trader consensus to price the Republican Party at 81.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election. The district's conservative strongholds in Lake, Sumter, and western Orange counties, where Webster won 60% in 2024, sustain GOP dominance despite the open seat and crowded Republican primary featuring candidates like Anthony Sabatini, Steve Farley, and Mike Wilnau. A modest Democratic field lacks notable challengers, while Gov. Ron DeSantis' newly signed congressional maps reinforce statewide Republican advantages. Primaries are August 18, with filing deadline June 12; no district-specific polls have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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