August Pfluger holds a commanding lead in the TX-11 House race as the Republican incumbent in a district with an R+17 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in conservative West Texas areas including the Permian Basin. He advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge of roughly $3.2 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds’ $89,000. Reynolds secured her nomination in the Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. A scheduled October 5 debate offers limited opportunity to shift voter sentiment ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Pfluger reflects the district’s partisan baseline and incumbency advantages, though a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented national Democratic wave could theoretically narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-11 House Election Winner
TX-11 House Election Winner
$35,479 Vol.
$35,479 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
August Pfluger (R)
95%
Claire Reynolds (D)
5%
$35,479 Vol.
$35,479 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
August Pfluger (R)
$9,700 Vol.
95%
Claire Reynolds (D)
$25,778 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).August Pfluger holds a commanding lead in the TX-11 House race as the Republican incumbent in a district with an R+17 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in conservative West Texas areas including the Permian Basin. He advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge of roughly $3.2 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds’ $89,000. Reynolds secured her nomination in the Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. A scheduled October 5 debate offers limited opportunity to shift voter sentiment ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Pfluger reflects the district’s partisan baseline and incumbency advantages, though a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented national Democratic wave could theoretically narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$35,479End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).August Pfluger holds a commanding lead in the TX-11 House race as the Republican incumbent in a district with an R+17 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in conservative West Texas areas including the Permian Basin. He advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge of roughly $3.2 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds’ $89,000. Reynolds secured her nomination in the Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. A scheduled October 5 debate offers limited opportunity to shift voter sentiment ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Pfluger reflects the district’s partisan baseline and incumbency advantages, though a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented national Democratic wave could theoretically narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,479End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...August Pfluger holds a commanding lead in the TX-11 House race as the Republican incumbent in a district with an R+17 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in conservative West Texas areas including the Permian Basin. He advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge of roughly $3.2 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds’ $89,000. Reynolds secured her nomination in the Democratic primary but faces structural headwinds in a seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. A scheduled October 5 debate offers limited opportunity to shift voter sentiment ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Pfluger reflects the district’s partisan baseline and incumbency advantages, though a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented national Democratic wave could theoretically narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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