Gregory Meeks, the longtime Democratic incumbent in New York’s Fifth Congressional District, anchors trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic victory in the 2026 House election. The district’s D+24 partisan voter index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and absence of a credible Republican general-election candidate create clear structural barriers for the opposition. Meeks enters the June 23 Democratic primary with substantial fundraising and party infrastructure, facing only limited challengers. Traders price in these advantages while noting narrow paths for movement, such as an unexpected primary upset or late-developing controversy that could suppress turnout before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-05 House Election Winner
NY-05 House Election Winner
$22,223 Vol.
$22,223 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$22,223 Vol.
$22,223 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,739 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$7,484 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gregory Meeks, the longtime Democratic incumbent in New York’s Fifth Congressional District, anchors trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic victory in the 2026 House election. The district’s D+24 partisan voter index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and absence of a credible Republican general-election candidate create clear structural barriers for the opposition. Meeks enters the June 23 Democratic primary with substantial fundraising and party infrastructure, facing only limited challengers. Traders price in these advantages while noting narrow paths for movement, such as an unexpected primary upset or late-developing controversy that could suppress turnout before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$22,223End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gregory Meeks, the longtime Democratic incumbent in New York’s Fifth Congressional District, anchors trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic victory in the 2026 House election. The district’s D+24 partisan voter index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and absence of a credible Republican general-election candidate create clear structural barriers for the opposition. Meeks enters the June 23 Democratic primary with substantial fundraising and party infrastructure, facing only limited challengers. Traders price in these advantages while noting narrow paths for movement, such as an unexpected primary upset or late-developing controversy that could suppress turnout before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,223End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Gregory Meeks, the longtime Democratic incumbent in New York’s Fifth Congressional District, anchors trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic victory in the 2026 House election. The district’s D+24 partisan voter index, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and absence of a credible Republican general-election candidate create clear structural barriers for the opposition. Meeks enters the June 23 Democratic primary with substantial fundraising and party infrastructure, facing only limited challengers. Traders price in these advantages while noting narrow paths for movement, such as an unexpected primary upset or late-developing controversy that could suppress turnout before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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