Lebanon's Cabinet recently declared Hezbollah's military arsenal and activities illegal, relaying the decision to the UN just 24 hours ago, intensifying pressure for full disarmament under UNSCR 1701 following the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. This follows Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's March 23 criticism of Hezbollah for sparking war with Israel and the government's February timeline granting the Lebanese army four months for phase two deployment north of the Litani River to absorb weapons— a plan Hezbollah swiftly rejected as a "grave sin." Influential Shiite clans have echoed calls for state monopoly on arms amid Hezbollah rocket attacks prompting Israeli strikes, but the group's rebuilding signals resistance. Traders watch army implementation, potential cabinet splits, and escalation risks before any resolution date, with historical non-compliance underscoring uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Hezbollah disarm by...?
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
$923,945 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
December 31
23%
$923,945 Vol.
December 31
$17,352 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanon's Cabinet recently declared Hezbollah's military arsenal and activities illegal, relaying the decision to the UN just 24 hours ago, intensifying pressure for full disarmament under UNSCR 1701 following the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. This follows Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's March 23 criticism of Hezbollah for sparking war with Israel and the government's February timeline granting the Lebanese army four months for phase two deployment north of the Litani River to absorb weapons— a plan Hezbollah swiftly rejected as a "grave sin." Influential Shiite clans have echoed calls for state monopoly on arms amid Hezbollah rocket attacks prompting Israeli strikes, but the group's rebuilding signals resistance. Traders watch army implementation, potential cabinet splits, and escalation risks before any resolution date, with historical non-compliance underscoring uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Volume
$923,945End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanon's Cabinet recently declared Hezbollah's military arsenal and activities illegal, relaying the decision to the UN just 24 hours ago, intensifying pressure for full disarmament under UNSCR 1701 following the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. This follows Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's March 23 criticism of Hezbollah for sparking war with Israel and the government's February timeline granting the Lebanese army four months for phase two deployment north of the Litani River to absorb weapons— a plan Hezbollah swiftly rejected as a "grave sin." Influential Shiite clans have echoed calls for state monopoly on arms amid Hezbollah rocket attacks prompting Israeli strikes, but the group's rebuilding signals resistance. Traders watch army implementation, potential cabinet splits, and escalation risks before any resolution date, with historical non-compliance underscoring uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Volume
$923,945End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lebanon's Cabinet recently declared Hezbollah's military arsenal and activities illegal, relaying the decision to the UN just 24 hours ago, intensifying pressure for full disarmament under UNSCR 1701 following the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. This follows Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's March 23 criticism of Hezbollah for sparking war with Israel and the government's February timeline granting the Lebanese army four months for phase two deployment north of the Litani River to absorb weapons— a plan Hezbollah swiftly rejected as a "grave sin." Influential Shiite clans have echoed calls for state monopoly on arms amid Hezbollah rocket attacks prompting Israeli strikes, but the group's rebuilding signals resistance. Traders watch army implementation, potential cabinet splits, and escalation risks before any resolution date, with historical non-compliance underscoring uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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