A US- and France-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli forces' pullback from southern Lebanon, and deployment of Lebanese Armed Forces with UNIFIL monitoring, marking de-escalation after intense cross-border exchanges and Israel's October ground operation. Critically, the deal excludes any disarmament requirement—a core Israeli demand—despite leadership losses like Hassan Nasrallah's killing in September. Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem declared weapons a "settled issue," rejecting concessions amid Iranian backing. Fragile truce faces violations; upcoming implementation deadlines and diplomatic talks could test compliance, but no verified disarmament progress shapes trader consensus on low near-term odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Hezbollah disarm by...?
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
$857,104 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
December 31
30%
$857,104 Vol.
March 31
$840,477 Vol.
<1%
December 31
$16,627 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A US- and France-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli forces' pullback from southern Lebanon, and deployment of Lebanese Armed Forces with UNIFIL monitoring, marking de-escalation after intense cross-border exchanges and Israel's October ground operation. Critically, the deal excludes any disarmament requirement—a core Israeli demand—despite leadership losses like Hassan Nasrallah's killing in September. Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem declared weapons a "settled issue," rejecting concessions amid Iranian backing. Fragile truce faces violations; upcoming implementation deadlines and diplomatic talks could test compliance, but no verified disarmament progress shapes trader consensus on low near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Volume
$857,104End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A US- and France-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli forces' pullback from southern Lebanon, and deployment of Lebanese Armed Forces with UNIFIL monitoring, marking de-escalation after intense cross-border exchanges and Israel's October ground operation. Critically, the deal excludes any disarmament requirement—a core Israeli demand—despite leadership losses like Hassan Nasrallah's killing in September. Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem declared weapons a "settled issue," rejecting concessions amid Iranian backing. Fragile truce faces violations; upcoming implementation deadlines and diplomatic talks could test compliance, but no verified disarmament progress shapes trader consensus on low near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Volume
$857,104End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US- and France-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli forces' pullback from southern Lebanon, and deployment of Lebanese Armed Forces with UNIFIL monitoring, marking de-escalation after intense cross-border exchanges and Israel's October ground operation. Critically, the deal excludes any disarmament requirement—a core Israeli demand—despite leadership losses like Hassan Nasrallah's killing in September. Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem declared weapons a "settled issue," rejecting concessions amid Iranian backing. Fragile truce faces violations; upcoming implementation deadlines and diplomatic talks could test compliance, but no verified disarmament progress shapes trader consensus on low near-term odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions