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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?

$110,178 Vol.

Aug 18, 2026
Polymarket

$110,178 Vol.

Polymarket

Tom Begich

$6,996 Vol.

80%

Bernadette Wilson

$13,907 Vol.

66%

Dave Bronson

$1,544 Vol.

50%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

$1,063 Vol.

48%

Click Bishop

$0 Vol.

41%

Treg Taylor

$54,677 Vol.

32%

Bruce Walden

$1,197 Vol.

26%

Nancy Dahlstrom

$11,282 Vol.

22%

Hank Kroll

$0 Vol.

14%

Matt Claman

$0 Vol.

11%

Matt Heilala

$2,694 Vol.

10%

Adam Crum

$4,014 Vol.

9%

Shelley Hughes

$0 Vol.

9%

Edna DeVries

$11,351 Vol.

6%

James Parkin

$1,452 Vol.

5%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.Incumbent Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy's term limits have opened a wide field in Alaska's nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, where the top four vote-getters advance to the ranked-choice general election. A crowded roster dominated by Republicans—including Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, former Anchorage Mayor David Bronson, and state legislators like Shelley Hughes and Click Bishop—competes alongside Democrats Tom Begich, Matt Claman, and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, plus independents. Early February fundraising reports spotlight self-funded Republicans Matt Heilala ($1.3 million) and Treg Taylor ($880,000) as leaders, with Dahlstrom trailing at $17,000, shaping trader views amid absent recent polls. Candidate forums continue, heightening visibility before the primary.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$110,178
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.Incumbent Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy's term limits have opened a wide field in Alaska's nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, where the top four vote-getters advance to the ranked-choice general election. A crowded roster dominated by Republicans—including Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, former Anchorage Mayor David Bronson, and state legislators like Shelley Hughes and Click Bishop—competes alongside Democrats Tom Begich, Matt Claman, and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, plus independents. Early February fundraising reports spotlight self-funded Republicans Matt Heilala ($1.3 million) and Treg Taylor ($880,000) as leaders, with Dahlstrom trailing at $17,000, shaping trader views amid absent recent polls. Candidate forums continue, heightening visibility before the primary.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$110,178
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Begich" at 80%, followed by "Bernadette Wilson" at 66%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" has generated $110.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" is "Tom Begich" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Bernadette Wilson" at 66%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.