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Elections·Primaries

SC-01 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

SC-01 Republican Primary Winner

Mark Smith 39%

Sam McCown 27%

Alex Pelbath 20%

Jay Byars 8.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Mark Smith 39%

Sam McCown 27%

Alex Pelbath 20%

Jay Byars 8.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Mark Smith

$1,720 Vol.

33%

Sam McCown

$1,018 Vol.

33%

Alex Pelbath

$1,366 Vol.

20%

Jay Byars

$418 Vol.

8%

Jack Ellison

$504 Vol.

5%

Jenny Costa Honeycutt

$461 Vol.

4%

Justin Myers

$529 Vol.

1%

Logan Cunningham

$664 Vol.

1%

Dan Brown

$357 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In South Carolina's 1st Congressional District Republican primary, trader consensus reflects a fragmented, open-seat contest after incumbent Nancy Mace shifted to the gubernatorial race, drawing a crowded field of over a dozen candidates and keeping top probabilities tightly clustered. State House Majority Leader Mark Smith holds a slim edge at 33% implied probability due to his legislative experience and local name recognition in the Lowcountry, while retired Air Force Lt. Col. Alex Pelbath (26%) benefits from military credentials appealing to GOP voters and physician Sam McCown (23%) leverages leading first-quarter fundraising exceeding $1.2 million. The March 30 filing deadline, including former Gov. Mark Sanford's late entry, heightened uncertainty without polls to clarify voter preferences; separation could emerge from high-profile endorsements—particularly a potential Trump nod, influential in South Carolina primaries—or strong showings in upcoming debates before the June 9 primary and possible runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,037
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In South Carolina's 1st Congressional District Republican primary, trader consensus reflects a fragmented, open-seat contest after incumbent Nancy Mace shifted to the gubernatorial race, drawing a crowded field of over a dozen candidates and keeping top probabilities tightly clustered. State House Majority Leader Mark Smith holds a slim edge at 33% implied probability due to his legislative experience and local name recognition in the Lowcountry, while retired Air Force Lt. Col. Alex Pelbath (26%) benefits from military credentials appealing to GOP voters and physician Sam McCown (23%) leverages leading first-quarter fundraising exceeding $1.2 million. The March 30 filing deadline, including former Gov. Mark Sanford's late entry, heightened uncertainty without polls to clarify voter preferences; separation could emerge from high-profile endorsements—particularly a potential Trump nod, influential in South Carolina primaries—or strong showings in upcoming debates before the June 9 primary and possible runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,037
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Smith" at 33%, followed by "Sam McCown" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 18, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Mark Smith" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sam McCown" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.