Trader consensus favors Stefany Shaheen at 60% implied probability to win New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on September 8, driven by her consistent double-digit polling lead in the January UNH survey—well ahead of rivals including Maura Sullivan and Heath Howard—and recent consolidation of endorsements from all Democratic mayors in the district plus major unions. Sullivan holds second at 28% on strong past fundraising in this open-seat race vacated by Chris Pappas's Senate bid, while Beriont and Howard lag amid limited visibility. An April 9 candidate forum underscored policy differences but yielded no polling shifts, leaving Shaheen's name recognition and institutional backing as key edges with four months until the primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedStefany Shaheen 60%
Maura Sullivan 25%
Carleigh Beriont 8%
Heath Howard 3.5%
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
Stefany Shaheen
60%
Maura Sullivan
25%
Carleigh Beriont
8%
Heath Howard
7%
Stefany Shaheen 60%
Maura Sullivan 25%
Carleigh Beriont 8%
Heath Howard 3.5%
$13,721 Vol.
$13,721 Vol.
Stefany Shaheen
60%
Maura Sullivan
25%
Carleigh Beriont
8%
Heath Howard
7%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 4:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Stefany Shaheen at 60% implied probability to win New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on September 8, driven by her consistent double-digit polling lead in the January UNH survey—well ahead of rivals including Maura Sullivan and Heath Howard—and recent consolidation of endorsements from all Democratic mayors in the district plus major unions. Sullivan holds second at 28% on strong past fundraising in this open-seat race vacated by Chris Pappas's Senate bid, while Beriont and Howard lag amid limited visibility. An April 9 candidate forum underscored policy differences but yielded no polling shifts, leaving Shaheen's name recognition and institutional backing as key edges with four months until the primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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