Trader consensus favors state Sen. Stefany Shaheen at 57.5% implied probability to win the open NH-01 Democratic primary on September 8, driven by her consistent double-digit polling leads, including a recent survey showing her at 23% to Maura Sullivan's 9%, bolstered by family name recognition from mother Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and strong Q1 fundraising. The seat is vacant after incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas shifts to the U.S. Senate race. Sullivan trails at 30.5% on robust fundraising as a Marine veteran and former Obama official, while Carleigh Beriont holds 10% amid a crowded field highlighted at an April 9 candidate forum. Progressive state Rep. Heath Howard sits at 3.5%, citing his own double-digit polling claims but facing steeper hurdles in consolidating support. Upcoming debates and voter outreach could shift dynamics in this competitive primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedStefany Shaheen 59%
Maura Sullivan 32%
Carleigh Beriont 11%
Heath Howard 3.4%
$12,875 Vol.
$12,875 Vol.
Stefany Shaheen
59%
Maura Sullivan
32%
Carleigh Beriont
11%
Heath Howard
3%
Stefany Shaheen 59%
Maura Sullivan 32%
Carleigh Beriont 11%
Heath Howard 3.4%
$12,875 Vol.
$12,875 Vol.
Stefany Shaheen
59%
Maura Sullivan
32%
Carleigh Beriont
11%
Heath Howard
3%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Nov 25, 2025, 4:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors state Sen. Stefany Shaheen at 57.5% implied probability to win the open NH-01 Democratic primary on September 8, driven by her consistent double-digit polling leads, including a recent survey showing her at 23% to Maura Sullivan's 9%, bolstered by family name recognition from mother Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and strong Q1 fundraising. The seat is vacant after incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas shifts to the U.S. Senate race. Sullivan trails at 30.5% on robust fundraising as a Marine veteran and former Obama official, while Carleigh Beriont holds 10% amid a crowded field highlighted at an April 9 candidate forum. Progressive state Rep. Heath Howard sits at 3.5%, citing his own double-digit polling claims but facing steeper hurdles in consolidating support. Upcoming debates and voter outreach could shift dynamics in this competitive primary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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