US strikes Iran by...?
$246,795,592 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
February 13
$13,057,980 Vol.
1%
February 14
$707,296 Vol.
2%
February 15
$307,933 Vol.
2%
February 16
$240,076 Vol.
3%
February 17
$291,440 Vol.
3%
February 18
$175,787 Vol.
4%
February 19
$68,272 Vol.
4%
February 20
$2,445,559 Vol.
6%
February 28
$14,067,391 Vol.
11%
March 15
$59,763 Vol.
22%
March 31
$8,498,277 Vol.
30%
June 30
$4,921,402 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 12, 2026, 12:49 PM ET
Volume
$246,795,592End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Jan 12, 2026, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US strikes Iran by...?
$246,795,592 Vol.
February 13
$13,057,980 Vol.
1%
February 14
$707,296 Vol.
2%
February 15
$307,933 Vol.
2%
February 16
$240,076 Vol.
3%
February 17
$291,440 Vol.
3%
February 18
$175,787 Vol.
4%
February 19
$68,272 Vol.
4%
February 20
$2,445,559 Vol.
6%
February 28
$14,067,391 Vol.
11%
March 15
$59,763 Vol.
22%
March 31
$8,498,277 Vol.
30%
June 30
$4,921,402 Vol.
43%
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