US strikes Iran by...?
NEW
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
December 31
$85 Vol.
2%
December 31
$85 Vol.
2%
March 31
$1,020 Vol.
18%
March 31
$1,020 Vol.
18%
June 30
$0 Vol.
24%
June 30
$0 Vol.
24%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Dec 22, 2025, 4:29 PM UTC
Volume
$1,105End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 4:29 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...NEW
US strikes Iran by...?
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
December 31
$85 Vol.
2%
March 31
$1,020 Vol.
18%
June 30
$0 Vol.
24%
About
Volume
$1,105End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 4:29 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.




Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.