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Geopolitics·Iran

US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Iran

US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by...?

$572,351 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$572,351 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$572,351 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Fordow, Iran's fortified underground uranium enrichment facility near Qom, continues to drive US and Israeli concerns over Tehran's nuclear program, with IAEA reports confirming ongoing production of near-weapons-grade uranium. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile sites deliberately spared nuclear infrastructure at Washington's urging, de-escalating direct confrontation despite prior Iranian missile barrages. This restraint anchors current trader sentiment amid the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah conflicts and post-US election transition to a Trump administration, which has signaled potential for tougher sanctions or diplomacy rather than military action. Key risks include Iranian proxy escalations or failed nuclear talks, with no confirmed strike plans; resolution hinges on verifiable attacks before the market deadline.

Fordow, Iran's fortified underground uranium enrichment facility near Qom, continues to drive US and Israeli concerns over Tehran's nuclear program, with IAEA reports confirming ongoing production of near-weapons-grade uranium. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile sites deliberately spared nuclear infrastructure at Washington's urging, de-escalating direct confrontation despite prior Iranian missile barrages. This restraint anchors current trader sentiment amid the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah conflicts and post-US election transition to a Trump administration, which has signaled potential for tougher sanctions or diplomacy rather than military action. Key risks include Iranian proxy escalations or failed nuclear talks, with no confirmed strike plans; resolution hinges on verifiable attacks before the market deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Fordow, Iran's fortified underground uranium enrichment facility near Qom, continues to drive US and Israeli concerns over Tehran's nuclear program, with IAEA reports confirming ongoing production of near-weapons-grade uranium. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile sites deliberately spared nuclear infrastructure at Washington's urging, de-escalating direct confrontation despite prior Iranian missile barrages. This restraint anchors current trader sentiment amid the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah conflicts and post-US election transition to a Trump administration, which has signaled potential for tougher sanctions or diplomacy rather than military action. Key risks include Iranian proxy escalations or failed nuclear talks, with no confirmed strike plans; resolution hinges on verifiable attacks before the market deadline.

Fordow, Iran's fortified underground uranium enrichment facility near Qom, continues to drive US and Israeli concerns over Tehran's nuclear program, with IAEA reports confirming ongoing production of near-weapons-grade uranium. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile sites deliberately spared nuclear infrastructure at Washington's urging, de-escalating direct confrontation despite prior Iranian missile barrages. This restraint anchors current trader sentiment amid the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah conflicts and post-US election transition to a Trump administration, which has signaled potential for tougher sanctions or diplomacy rather than military action. Key risks include Iranian proxy escalations or failed nuclear talks, with no confirmed strike plans; resolution hinges on verifiable attacks before the market deadline.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "March 31" at 11%, followed by "March 15" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by...?" has generated $572.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by...?" is "March 31" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 15" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.