US and Israeli forces launched the current war against Iran on February 28, 2026, with widespread airstrikes targeting missile sites, air defenses, and nuclear facilities, prompting Iranian missile retaliation that killed three US service members on March 1. A US strike on Isfahan yesterday generated massive fireballs over military installations, while President Trump stated today the air offensive could end in two to three weeks, shifting Strait of Hormuz security to other nations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth refused to rule out ground troops amid deployments of 17,000 additional personnel to the Gulf three days ago, plus Marines and 82nd Airborne, raising escalation risks toward potential operations on sites like Kharg Island. No US ground entry into Iran has occurred, with diplomatic talks stalled and rapid shifts possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$71,986,852 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
1%
April 30
55%
December 31
63%
$71,986,852 Vol.
March 31
$48,836,333 Vol.
1%
April 30
$13,459,486 Vol.
55%
December 31
$7,640,426 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US and Israeli forces launched the current war against Iran on February 28, 2026, with widespread airstrikes targeting missile sites, air defenses, and nuclear facilities, prompting Iranian missile retaliation that killed three US service members on March 1. A US strike on Isfahan yesterday generated massive fireballs over military installations, while President Trump stated today the air offensive could end in two to three weeks, shifting Strait of Hormuz security to other nations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth refused to rule out ground troops amid deployments of 17,000 additional personnel to the Gulf three days ago, plus Marines and 82nd Airborne, raising escalation risks toward potential operations on sites like Kharg Island. No US ground entry into Iran has occurred, with diplomatic talks stalled and rapid shifts possible.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$71,986,852Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US and Israeli forces launched the current war against Iran on February 28, 2026, with widespread airstrikes targeting missile sites, air defenses, and nuclear facilities, prompting Iranian missile retaliation that killed three US service members on March 1. A US strike on Isfahan yesterday generated massive fireballs over military installations, while President Trump stated today the air offensive could end in two to three weeks, shifting Strait of Hormuz security to other nations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth refused to rule out ground troops amid deployments of 17,000 additional personnel to the Gulf three days ago, plus Marines and 82nd Airborne, raising escalation risks toward potential operations on sites like Kharg Island. No US ground entry into Iran has occurred, with diplomatic talks stalled and rapid shifts possible.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,986,852Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
US and Israeli forces launched the current war against Iran on February 28, 2026, with widespread airstrikes targeting missile sites, air defenses, and nuclear facilities, prompting Iranian missile retaliation that killed three US service members on March 1. A US strike on Isfahan yesterday generated massive fireballs over military installations, while President Trump stated today the air offensive could end in two to three weeks, shifting Strait of Hormuz security to other nations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth refused to rule out ground troops amid deployments of 17,000 additional personnel to the Gulf three days ago, plus Marines and 82nd Airborne, raising escalation risks toward potential operations on sites like Kharg Island. No US ground entry into Iran has occurred, with diplomatic talks stalled and rapid shifts possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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