Amid the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran that began with surprise strikes on February 28, 2026, trader sentiment has surged on Polymarket toward higher odds of US ground forces entering Iranian territory, fueled by deployments of over 50,000 troops including Marines, 82nd Airborne, and rapid-response units signaling pre-invasion staging. In the past 24 hours, US strikes hit Isfahan military facilities, Defense Secretary Hegseth reported 200 dynamic overnight attacks, and Iranian retaliation injured US personnel at Saudi bases, while Tehran rejected a 15-point US peace proposal and threatened Gulf targets from April 1. Stalled talks and Pentagon airborne assault plans amplify risks of escalation before April 30 resolution windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$73,947,999 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
56%
December 31
66%
$73,947,999 Vol.
March 31
$50,246,826 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$13,850,098 Vol.
56%
December 31
$7,794,557 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran that began with surprise strikes on February 28, 2026, trader sentiment has surged on Polymarket toward higher odds of US ground forces entering Iranian territory, fueled by deployments of over 50,000 troops including Marines, 82nd Airborne, and rapid-response units signaling pre-invasion staging. In the past 24 hours, US strikes hit Isfahan military facilities, Defense Secretary Hegseth reported 200 dynamic overnight attacks, and Iranian retaliation injured US personnel at Saudi bases, while Tehran rejected a 15-point US peace proposal and threatened Gulf targets from April 1. Stalled talks and Pentagon airborne assault plans amplify risks of escalation before April 30 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$73,947,999Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran that began with surprise strikes on February 28, 2026, trader sentiment has surged on Polymarket toward higher odds of US ground forces entering Iranian territory, fueled by deployments of over 50,000 troops including Marines, 82nd Airborne, and rapid-response units signaling pre-invasion staging. In the past 24 hours, US strikes hit Isfahan military facilities, Defense Secretary Hegseth reported 200 dynamic overnight attacks, and Iranian retaliation injured US personnel at Saudi bases, while Tehran rejected a 15-point US peace proposal and threatened Gulf targets from April 1. Stalled talks and Pentagon airborne assault plans amplify risks of escalation before April 30 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,947,999Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
Amid the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran that began with surprise strikes on February 28, 2026, trader sentiment has surged on Polymarket toward higher odds of US ground forces entering Iranian territory, fueled by deployments of over 50,000 troops including Marines, 82nd Airborne, and rapid-response units signaling pre-invasion staging. In the past 24 hours, US strikes hit Isfahan military facilities, Defense Secretary Hegseth reported 200 dynamic overnight attacks, and Iranian retaliation injured US personnel at Saudi bases, while Tehran rejected a 15-point US peace proposal and threatened Gulf targets from April 1. Stalled talks and Pentagon airborne assault plans amplify risks of escalation before April 30 resolution windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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