Incumbent Republican Joe Wilson dominates trader consensus at 78.5% implied probability for the Republican Party to win South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by his strong fundraising—$669,000 raised versus under $25,000 for GOP primary challengers Hamp Redmond and Sam Gibbons—and the district's R+7 partisan voting index, where Trump won by 14 points in 2024. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican based on Wilson's history of double-digit general election margins, including 59.5% in 2024. Recent first-quarter FEC filings through March 31 underscore his financial edge ahead of the June 9 primaries, while a fragmented Democratic field featuring Roger Pruitt, David Robinson II, Zyon Khalifa, and Daniel Shrief contributes to the party's 18.5% odds; elevated pricing on Other (50.5%), B (50.0%), and A (49.5%) reflects pre-primary nominee uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSC-02 House Election Winner
SC-02 House Election Winner
$24,727 Vol.
$24,727 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
78%
Democratic Party
19%
$24,727 Vol.
$24,727 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$9,026 Vol.
78%
Democratic Party
$15,701 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Joe Wilson dominates trader consensus at 78.5% implied probability for the Republican Party to win South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by his strong fundraising—$669,000 raised versus under $25,000 for GOP primary challengers Hamp Redmond and Sam Gibbons—and the district's R+7 partisan voting index, where Trump won by 14 points in 2024. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican based on Wilson's history of double-digit general election margins, including 59.5% in 2024. Recent first-quarter FEC filings through March 31 underscore his financial edge ahead of the June 9 primaries, while a fragmented Democratic field featuring Roger Pruitt, David Robinson II, Zyon Khalifa, and Daniel Shrief contributes to the party's 18.5% odds; elevated pricing on Other (50.5%), B (50.0%), and A (49.5%) reflects pre-primary nominee uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$24,727End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Joe Wilson dominates trader consensus at 78.5% implied probability for the Republican Party to win South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by his strong fundraising—$669,000 raised versus under $25,000 for GOP primary challengers Hamp Redmond and Sam Gibbons—and the district's R+7 partisan voting index, where Trump won by 14 points in 2024. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican based on Wilson's history of double-digit general election margins, including 59.5% in 2024. Recent first-quarter FEC filings through March 31 underscore his financial edge ahead of the June 9 primaries, while a fragmented Democratic field featuring Roger Pruitt, David Robinson II, Zyon Khalifa, and Daniel Shrief contributes to the party's 18.5% odds; elevated pricing on Other (50.5%), B (50.0%), and A (49.5%) reflects pre-primary nominee uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,727End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Joe Wilson dominates trader consensus at 78.5% implied probability for the Republican Party to win South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by his strong fundraising—$669,000 raised versus under $25,000 for GOP primary challengers Hamp Redmond and Sam Gibbons—and the district's R+7 partisan voting index, where Trump won by 14 points in 2024. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Republican based on Wilson's history of double-digit general election margins, including 59.5% in 2024. Recent first-quarter FEC filings through March 31 underscore his financial edge ahead of the June 9 primaries, while a fragmented Democratic field featuring Roger Pruitt, David Robinson II, Zyon Khalifa, and Daniel Shrief contributes to the party's 18.5% odds; elevated pricing on Other (50.5%), B (50.0%), and A (49.5%) reflects pre-primary nominee uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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