Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting seat projections like 338Canada's estimating PQ at 63 seats versus 47 for the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), despite a recent Léger poll (March 20-22) tying both at 33% vote intention. PQ's edge stems from dominant 41% support among francophone voters—who form the majority—and strength in regions outside Greater Montreal, where PLQ leads at 44%, amplified by first-past-the-post dynamics favoring efficient regional vote distribution. CAQ languishes at 8-9% amid post-Legault resignation collapse (January 2026) and zero projected seats, while PCQ's 15% polls yield few seats. With the election due by October 5, PLQ's surge under new leader Charles Milliard has narrowed the gap, but models give PQ 92% odds of plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 57%
PLQ 32%
CAQ 8%
PCQ <1%
$384,436 Vol.
$384,436 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
57%
PLQ
32%
CAQ
8%
PCQ
1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 57%
PLQ 32%
CAQ 8%
PCQ <1%
$384,436 Vol.
$384,436 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
$37,031 Vol.
57%
PLQ
$39,725 Vol.
32%
CAQ
$37,190 Vol.
8%
PCQ
$121,106 Vol.
1%
QS
$46,161 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$103,223 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting seat projections like 338Canada's estimating PQ at 63 seats versus 47 for the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), despite a recent Léger poll (March 20-22) tying both at 33% vote intention. PQ's edge stems from dominant 41% support among francophone voters—who form the majority—and strength in regions outside Greater Montreal, where PLQ leads at 44%, amplified by first-past-the-post dynamics favoring efficient regional vote distribution. CAQ languishes at 8-9% amid post-Legault resignation collapse (January 2026) and zero projected seats, while PCQ's 15% polls yield few seats. With the election due by October 5, PLQ's surge under new leader Charles Milliard has narrowed the gap, but models give PQ 92% odds of plurality.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$384,436End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting seat projections like 338Canada's estimating PQ at 63 seats versus 47 for the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), despite a recent Léger poll (March 20-22) tying both at 33% vote intention. PQ's edge stems from dominant 41% support among francophone voters—who form the majority—and strength in regions outside Greater Montreal, where PLQ leads at 44%, amplified by first-past-the-post dynamics favoring efficient regional vote distribution. CAQ languishes at 8-9% amid post-Legault resignation collapse (January 2026) and zero projected seats, while PCQ's 15% polls yield few seats. With the election due by October 5, PLQ's surge under new leader Charles Milliard has narrowed the gap, but models give PQ 92% odds of plurality.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$384,436End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 57.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Quebec's National Assembly, reflecting seat projections like 338Canada's estimating PQ at 63 seats versus 47 for the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), despite a recent Léger poll (March 20-22) tying both at 33% vote intention. PQ's edge stems from dominant 41% support among francophone voters—who form the majority—and strength in regions outside Greater Montreal, where PLQ leads at 44%, amplified by first-past-the-post dynamics favoring efficient regional vote distribution. CAQ languishes at 8-9% amid post-Legault resignation collapse (January 2026) and zero projected seats, while PCQ's 15% polls yield few seats. With the election due by October 5, PLQ's surge under new leader Charles Milliard has narrowed the gap, but models give PQ 92% odds of plurality.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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