Amid the 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran has launched repeated missile barrages at Israel, including impacts on central cities like Bnei Brak and Petah Tikva on March 31 that injured dozens and were confirmed by Israeli media after censor approval. These direct actions by Iranian forces—distinct from proxy attacks—underscore Tehran's retaliatory posture despite degraded missile stockpiles from ongoing airstrikes, as noted by IDF reports of 5-11 daily salvos last week. Syrian President al-Sharaa affirmed neutrality unless attacked, while US firepower surges and Houthi-Hezbollah joint strikes signal potential axis escalation. Traders weigh confirmation of qualifying strikes via official statements or credible reporting by April 3 for market resolution, with no ceasefire talks evident.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$2,129,201 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
98%
$2,129,201 Vol.
March 31
$32,352 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran has launched repeated missile barrages at Israel, including impacts on central cities like Bnei Brak and Petah Tikva on March 31 that injured dozens and were confirmed by Israeli media after censor approval. These direct actions by Iranian forces—distinct from proxy attacks—underscore Tehran's retaliatory posture despite degraded missile stockpiles from ongoing airstrikes, as noted by IDF reports of 5-11 daily salvos last week. Syrian President al-Sharaa affirmed neutrality unless attacked, while US firepower surges and Houthi-Hezbollah joint strikes signal potential axis escalation. Traders weigh confirmation of qualifying strikes via official statements or credible reporting by April 3 for market resolution, with no ceasefire talks evident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$2,129,201End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran has launched repeated missile barrages at Israel, including impacts on central cities like Bnei Brak and Petah Tikva on March 31 that injured dozens and were confirmed by Israeli media after censor approval. These direct actions by Iranian forces—distinct from proxy attacks—underscore Tehran's retaliatory posture despite degraded missile stockpiles from ongoing airstrikes, as noted by IDF reports of 5-11 daily salvos last week. Syrian President al-Sharaa affirmed neutrality unless attacked, while US firepower surges and Houthi-Hezbollah joint strikes signal potential axis escalation. Traders weigh confirmation of qualifying strikes via official statements or credible reporting by April 3 for market resolution, with no ceasefire talks evident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,129,201End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 Iran war, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran has launched repeated missile barrages at Israel, including impacts on central cities like Bnei Brak and Petah Tikva on March 31 that injured dozens and were confirmed by Israeli media after censor approval. These direct actions by Iranian forces—distinct from proxy attacks—underscore Tehran's retaliatory posture despite degraded missile stockpiles from ongoing airstrikes, as noted by IDF reports of 5-11 daily salvos last week. Syrian President al-Sharaa affirmed neutrality unless attacked, while US firepower surges and Houthi-Hezbollah joint strikes signal potential axis escalation. Traders weigh confirmation of qualifying strikes via official statements or credible reporting by April 3 for market resolution, with no ceasefire talks evident.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions